Top trips on the river. What are we doing?

[Gurravasa]

Raise/call, we have top trips top kicker that all I need to know. What are you putting him on? 99 is the only likely hand I can see we're behind. Easy raise/call...

[BrassMonkey]

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Villian would cap any high ace pre-flop. Also, what clubs is he capping pre-flop?


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You seem to be arguing that the river did not help you.

I kind of agree. So I call.

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Huh, how's that? What I'm arguing is that no club combo really makes sense (or at least, certainly isn't "standard") in light of the pre-flop cap, and that there are some ace combos he could have that are worse than mine.

[dr_subs]

I would call, for the following reasons:

1. Raising will not knock Villain out

2. The hand that will beat you are: any 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s, 22, 33, 99, A2, A3, A9. Of these, according to original poster, the final four listed, plus QJ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], QT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and even Q8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] could explain Villain's betting pattern. Additionally, this person may play any small pair to the limit short-handed, pre-flop, so 22 and 33 are still dangerous.

3. Villain's hands you will win with that Villain may have been betting like that are: Ax (but not x=9,3,2; most likely AQ, AJ, AT, esp. if kicker is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), and any pair other than those above.

For me, there are too many likely hands that could win for Villain, compared to the likely hands that will win for you. Not having been in the game, and having enough information on what the flop did for the Villain, I would call.

The only hands the river Ace helped you on (i.e. moved you from loser to winner) are two-pairs for the Villain; would Villain have capped pre-flop on 93, 92, or 32? The Ace also would have made Villain's Ax look better (but would not have helped him). Basically, it moved you from top pair with a good kicker to top three-of-a-kind with a good kicker, but also introduced the possibility of a 9's, 3's, or 2's, over A's for your opponent -- something that kills you.

So I agree the river Ace doesn't change this hand much. Not nearly as much as the flush-completing turn Ace.

[Turn Prophet]

I probably raise/call and expect to chop here a fair share of the time against another AK.

[Heisenb3rg]

If villain is a spazz cap the turn...
He could be drawing and take a final stab on the river betting into you. You also have equity to improve over 99/22/33 or A9/A3/A2. The only hands you improved ahead of on the river are is 92/23/93 surely hes not this spaazy?

I actually just call the river though, because there are a few worse aces in his range but there are a lot that beats you too. Most of his air will probabily fold to your river raise. (unless hes a super super spazz, then u can raise)

I think someones much more likely to bluff the river and call the turn cap than 3-bet bluff this river.

It also slightly depends on his PF spazzyness, how tight is he capping here? Im assuming like 15% of his hands, but yo udidnt really give a read.

[Apanage]

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Villian would cap any high ace pre-flop. Also, what clubs is he capping pre-flop?


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You seem to be arguing that the river did not help you.

I kind of agree. So I call.

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Huh, how's that? What I'm arguing is that no club combo really makes sense (or at least, certainly isn't "standard") in light of the pre-flop cap, and that there are some ace combos he could have that are worse than mine.

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That is maybe correct.But then it doesn´t make any sense to not cap the turn.Your hand value hasn´t changed with the river card.

[mvoss]

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That is maybe correct.But then it doesn´t make any sense to not cap the turn.Your hand value hasn´t changed with the river card.

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My thoughts exactly, glad we agree on something.

[Apanage]

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That is maybe correct.But then it doesn´t make any sense to not cap the turn.Your hand value hasn´t changed with the river card.

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My thoughts exactly, glad we agree on something.

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We are agreeing most of the time Mvoss.You just don´t know it because I do not usually post "I think that too posts".
About the infamous 99 hand I just like to challenge the somewhat streamlined 2+2 wisdom the best posters in this forum practices.Partly because it is my belief that position has a much stronger influence than preflop equity value on EV in some particular situations and in some particular hands.Partly because my own experience constantly playing with whole tables of loose opponents have got me realize that it is really hard to extract that preflop equity against all loose players except for the most passives since you really never know where you stand because the flop is going to be bad most of the times.

But forget that one and look forward to saturday.
The blonde clones are making their way to The European Championships.

[Carmine]

BM, don't you think it is important to give a little better description for villian than just Spaz. How is one suppose to interpret exactly what that means. Does spaz mean maniac that caps JTs/33/A9s preflop. Does it mean he doesn't consider anything but his two cards etc. This info might help us decide if we should have capped the turn, if there's value in a river raise etc.

[Heisenb3rg]

IMO the IMMEDIATE value of capping preflop when you have a slight equity edge HU is pretty inconsequential.

What's more important is how the CAP effects the psychology post flop.

1) How they see your "calling" range vs your capping range
2) Wheter you want to have the iniative or dont have the initiative

Totally depends on the opponent, your positions and your "type" of holding.

Against spew monkies I love to hammer them with raises light because it becomes a pissing contest with them.
Ill occasionally spew a draw or cap J9s against them just to let them think that im on their spew level.. Then tighten up and just pound on them for value (and obv showdown anything).

Against some spew monkies capping gets them to play MORE agressive postflop.

Against most TAG's capping gets them to play less agressive postflop and more foldy.

Also cetain hands do better with/without initiative depending on the opponent.

So much more money is won/lost postflop that the extra bet with a 5% equity edge is inconsequential and the CAP should be done considering how post flop play is effected imo.

3 handed value is the most important factor(but not everything)
4 handed it should almost always be for value