NL .5/1 live -- better side of coin flip -- do you call?

[Javanewt]

Home .5/1 NLHE, 8-handed

EP (~$150) limps, SB completes, hero (~$80) is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero raises to $5 (typical)

Two callers

Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks

Hero bets $10

EP goes all-in

SB folds

EP is loose aggressive and slighly tilting and most definitely has a flush draw (i.e., hero is positive EP has a flush draw) — could be any two spades.

Call or fold?

[Rocco]

[ QUOTE ]
EP is loose aggressive and slighly tilting and most definitely has a flush draw (i.e., hero is positive EP has a flush draw) — could be any two spades.

Call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh? Didn't you just answer your own question?

[Javanewt]

I just want to make sure this is always a call. I've been told otherwise, so I wanted your opinions. It's a very close coin flip. If you are slightly ahead, you should always call, correct?

[Mingdu]

How many outs does he have if he has a flush draw? How many cards win for you?

It is about 62-38 in your favour ... get pokerstove

Easy call if you are 100% sure of your read

[Javanewt]

Thanks, Mingdu, but I don't think pokerstove is going to help me live [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I looked it up later based on his hand and was 57% to win. At the table, I put myself at 55%, so I was pretty close. Just wanted to make sure the variance was worth it. I know I shouldn't be results oriented, but the last three times I've gotten my money in with the best hand, I've lost.

I thought I was right in calling, but these guys make you second guess yourself. A very juicy game, because they don't understand pot odds, EV, etc.

It's nice to get my confidence back from you guys and to get positive feedback.

I rarely post hands, because I usually know what I did right/wrong. This time I needed the justification. That's one of the things I appreciate about this board.

[Mingdu]

[ QUOTE ]
but I don't think pokerstove is going to help me live [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, there's that hehe

Did you take your K of spades out of the equation?

[Rocco]

Of course, Pokerstove is only helpful when you analyze hands afterwards. But if you have done it many times, you get a feel for the percentages. I think your estimation of 55% was a bit off, and probably because you had lost a couple of "races" against draws. You'd be more accurate if you go with the estimated range. Of course, the percentage against the actual hand will be a bit lower than against the range... I have you 65/35 against any flush draw with sets and two pair hands added in. I guess in your case, since you were a 57% fav, he had a flush draw with an added backdoor, right? Can I assume 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

[Javanewt]

Close. He had 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Ironically, a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit on the turn, and a 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river. LOL.

Actually, I think at the table I put him on a flush draw, but thought he might have a 2, straight draw, something. I underestimated, but knew I was the better part of the coin flip.

He would never have played a made hand this way. Darn good reads and unlucky cards.

Thanks. I feel much better about the call.

[Rocco]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. I feel much better about the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I was way off with 65/35... It's 60/40 against a random flush draw, and a coinflip if you add made hands (which you on the other hand eliminated from his range). Bear in mind that you holding K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] actually adds 5% in your favour.

But, it's still a clear call, no doubt.

[mce86]

If you know he has a flush draw, easy call. If he hits it on the turn, you have the nut flush redraw. If he doesnt, hell you have one of his outs!
If he's playing badly, im gonna call this 100% of the time.