NL10: bottom 2pair monster-c/r´ed

[mondonman]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($10)
Button ($11.75)
SB ($8.65)
BB ($21.50)
UTG ($4.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $0.35, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($0.90) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $8.25</font>, Hero calls $7.55.

No way I am getting away here, right?

[creamfillin]

Can you ask for anything more?

[KingKory]

You've got $1.10 invested, and you're contemplating calling off a BI. You can most definitely get away here, and you probably should.

Best-case scenario villain turns over KQcc, and you guys flip for it.

[mondonman]

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Best-case scenario villain turns over KQcc, and you guys flip for it.

[/ QUOTE ]
That surprises me. I would think its the worst-case scenario.
Do you really think there is a big possibility of him holding a better hand than botton 2pair and playing the monster like this? Totally over c/r´ing on the flop?

[KingKory]

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That surprises me. I would think its the worst-case scenario.


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Naw, worst-case scenario is him turning over AT/TT/77 like he did [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] And you drawing virtually dead.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think there is a big possibility of him holding a better hand than botton 2pair and playing the monster like this? Totally over c/r´ing on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's look at it from his perspective -- there's a million draws out there, and an Ace. Plenty of hands that could draw out on him, or pay him off.

In most cases, a villain probably wouldn't overplay a monster in this fashion, and you'd be totally right...but why risk it? You have 11bb's invested, and you're risking 80.

I'm not saying it's the worst call in the world, I'm saying it's a 50/50 call at best. Overbetting monsters is how regulars beat 10NL on a daily basis.

[Mal_Pais]

No reads on Villian?

This is a tough spot. He's not going to put us on T7. But that's a big bet he made, an all-in check-raise. If he was a 2+2er, I'd put him on a draw and call. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I've had a few beers and I've never been good at math, but I recall something called Bayes Theorem. I don't understand it, but its less likely that he has 77 or TT, given our cards. AT and A7 seem like the hands that we're most concerned about, but its still harder for him to make those hands, given our cards.

Considering the size of the pot, I probably fold and go back to nitting a sweater.

[mondonman]

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[ QUOTE ]

That surprises me. I would think its the worst-case scenario.


[/ QUOTE ]
Naw, worst-case scenario is him turning over AT/TT/77 like he did [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] And you drawing virtually dead.

[/ QUOTE ]
He flipped AK and didn´t improve.
I was just wondering because this bet looked terribly donkish to me, advertising a FD or TPGK. After these posts I suspect I should be more suspicious when something like that happens.
Are moves like that with monsters common at microstakes?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think there is a big possibility of him holding a better hand than botton 2pair and playing the monster like this? Totally over c/r´ing on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's look at it from his perspective -- there's a million draws out there, and an Ace. Plenty of hands that could draw out on him, or pay him off.

In most cases, a villain probably wouldn't overplay a monster in this fashion, and you'd be totally right...but why risk it? You have 11bb's invested, and you're risking 80.

I'm not saying it's the worst call in the world, I'm saying it's a 50/50 call at best. Overbetting monsters is how regulars beat 10NL on a daily basis.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I am "right in most cases" with calling, then I have to call. It´s +$EV. I am not afraid of variance at NL10 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Dave I]

I snap call this the vast majority of the time. It is almost always what you said he had, a draw or a hand they turned into a bluff (under pair). Sure, sometimes they flip a better hand but not often enough.

[IceMuncher]

Easy call imo. I almost never see a hand better than ours here.

[PwnSauce]

I call here and reload if beat. Probably flush draw, pair plus flush draw maybe combo draw. Either way you're beating a lot of hands and when you do lose its against unlikely hands like TT, 77, A7 ,AT. Not calling here is kinda noobish imo.