AQs - nfd faces flop overbet

[darkcore]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($29.90)
UTG ($57.28)
UTG+1 ($28.92)
UTG+2 ($24.65)
MP1 ($19.62)
MP2 ($25.30)
MP3 ($31)
CO ($73.75)
Button ($19.65)
Hero ($26.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.10.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises to $1</font>, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero (poster) calls $0.90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($4.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets $20</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero ???


villian is unknown (only 7 hands). it's kinda hard to fold here, right?

[Spy Dog]

I'd close. If he only bet $5 on the flop then I like pushing to give us some fold equity against AK and lower PPs. However, he's not giving us that opportunity so it looks like you have a pretty close equity decision. If you like to gamble, call. If you hate variance, fold.

[b0on]

Best case scenario is you are slightly ahead of 99-JJ with no pot odds. The only hand he can have that you are well ahead of is 4h5h, which is unlikely given pf action.

His most likely set of hands are QQ-AA, which I don't think you have odds to call against.

[wagon30]

I like fold here. If you have all 15 outs clean you are a slight favorite to a weak made hand, and if he has something like A8 you will close to getting the right odds. But sometimes he'll have a set or two pair, and I think that kills the small edge you sometimes have. To me you are either barely making the right decision or making a big mistake, and that combination equals fold even if the big mistake is much less frequent than the barely right.

[noggindoc]

[ QUOTE ]


villian is unknown (only 7 hands). it's kinda hard to fold here, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Naw, just click the button on the left, folding is easy. Just kidding I agree his bet makes me kind of want to get the money in.

[JackAll]

Why did you check that flop??

[darkcore]

hm, why did i check... against 3 opponents i was going for a check-raise. and i figured a free card wouldn't hurt me that much, either.

i am not that much behind everything but a set. and this flop bet screams "don't call me!"...

i wouldn't have much trouble going all-in here. calling all-in is a different story...
but since villian is unknown (&amp; this is nl25 after all) i decided to go for it.

he had TT.