STTF SNG->cash thread

[Diamond Lie]

[ QUOTE ]
There was a Cash Poker hand where David Williams made as obvious a fold of bottom set as there ever is, but it was something like

Adam Richardson: UTG+1 raises to 600 with KsQd
David Willaims: Button calls with TsTh
Bob Bright: BB calls with Qs9h

Flop comes: AhTdJd

Bob checks
Adam bets $1200
David calls $1200
Bob raises to $6400
Adam goes allin for about $30,000
David lays it down
Bob lays it down

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LE22RBKTaak

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, pretty sick hand

[Diamond Lie]

Live 1/2 NL. I have 450 behind me, BB has 190.

<font color="blue"> I have JJ. PF I raise to 12 from UTG+1, 2 callers. BB makes it 50 to go. I call, everyone else folds. </font>

<font color="red">Pot:$124 </font>

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB leads out for $50.

It could be a standard c-bet with any two overcards, but this person has been playing a relatively tight game. With BB leaving himself w/ $90 behind after his flop bet, are we stacking off here every time?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Live 1/2 NL. I have 450 behind me, BB has 190.

<font color="blue"> I have JJ. PF I raise to 12 from UTG+1, 2 callers. BB makes it 50 to go. I call, everyone else folds. </font>

<font color="red">Pot:$124 </font>

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB leads out for $50.

It could be a standard c-bet with any two overcards, but this person has been playing a relatively tight game. With BB leaving himself w/ $90 behind after his flop bet, are we stacking off here every time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing live, I think you can get specific-enough reads to fold to the preflop reraise against certain players. If you can't find a reason to fold to the preflop reraise, there isn't much reason to fold the flop.

[Diamond Lie]

SP

Seriously considered folding on the flop. Folding PF is weaksauce, but maybe I should consider folding JJ PF against certain villains who raise that big?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
SP

Seriously considered folding on the flop. Folding PF is weaksauce, but maybe I should consider folding JJ PF against certain villains who raise that big?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're going to call more than a quarter of his stack preflop there's no way you should be folding the flop. The only consideration is what's the best way to get the rest of him money in with the widest range of hands. With deeper stacks, sure, consider calling preflop and folding to a suspiciously-small flop bet. This is 1/2 we're talking about, right? It's not exactly being played by the best and brightest your dingy local poker room has to offer.

[Diamond Lie]

Yeah I need to think about why I am calling the massive 3-bets with hands like JJ if I am folding the flop (which I didnt fwiw). I guess it was probably better to fold PF though, youre right

[slimon]

After reading goofy's analysis, it looks like you can profitably play suited connectors 45s - JTs with the 5/10 rule considering the implied odds.
One issue at hand is that the 5/10 rule assumes a reasonble chance you'll net an opponent's stack when you hit your hand. This is fine for the made hands because all of them are beating an over pair. The combo draws are not as good because if you push and your opponent folds, you are getting the correct implied odds to call preflop with the 5/10 rule in the first place. If you push and he calls, you'll hit your hand around 50-60% of the time. With the money already in the pot and the fold equity you might have, going all in with a combo draw is a fine play, however I question whether you have the correct implied odds preflop to get yourself into that situation. There is some math that needs to be worked out here, but it appears suited connectors are not as easy a call as pocket pairs using the 5/10 rule.
A good play may be to call with these in position only. That gives you an added advantage when your opponent checks the flop to you.

What is the 5/10 rule and how do you apply it? Can someone give me a real life example.

[blackize]

You should read all the replies to goofyballer's stickied post. This one in particular I remember:

[ QUOTE ]

10.8% chance of flopping a set with a PP, shouldnt we be calling the same raises (maybe more) with sc's as we are with PPs (which is most). [ QUOTE ]


As he pointed out, your equity edge when you "hit" isn't nearly as big so your implied odds aren't nearly as high (as well as your draws are often obvious). A collary to this is that position becomes more important in the play of those hands.

These two factors combined mean you can't be playing in more pots with them than PPs based on the numbers you quoted alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that the hands you flop with connectors have a significant probability of being drawn out on so I would guess that you need considerably more than 10:1 implied with connectors(to play fit/fold with).

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the 5/10 rule and how do you apply it?

[/ QUOTE ]


The 5/10 rule is just a guideline Bob Ciaffone (iirc) introduced in Pot Limit and No Limit Poker to help players decide when to call raises preflop with speculative hands like small and medium pocket pairs and suited connectors. The guideline stipulates that if the raise is for less than 5% of your stack, it's an easy call; if it's for more than 10% of your stack, it's an easy fold. In between 5% and 10% you need to exercise judgment and consider other factors such as position, tendencies of opponents, etc.

I believe the thinking and math has evolved since Bob wrote that piece, but it's still a good rule-of-thumb.

Edit: I forgot to mention that even though Bob wrote, "our stack size," what we're really concerned with are effective stack sizes.

(Goofy's post with replies is as good an example as any of how the thinking has evolved. Pasters post in this thread a page or two back has some interesting thoughts about other factors as well.)

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Alright, I know everyone is going to say the same thing for this hand, but I figured I would throw it out there to see if there is anyone who sais different. I am wondering if there is ever an ok situation to fold bottom set.

<font color="red">Live 1/2 NL. I have $300 behind me.

Effective stacks of villains in hands are:
CO: $450
UTG+1: $600. </font>

PF: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

<font color="blue"> I open limp UTG. UTG+1 makes it 12. CO calls. I call as well. </font>

<font color="red">Pot: $39 </font>
Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="blue"> I donk into the preflop raiser for 25. He pauses, raising to 75. The CO pseudo looks concerned, and doesn't really look displeased in raising it to 175. </font>

At this point its back to me. There is $315 in the pot, and I have about $250 left. I am pretty sure one of the players has a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I find it really hard to put the CO on a hand like JJ since he flat calls PF. It really feels like I'm up against Nut flush draw and top Set. I obviously insta-pushed, but I was pretty sure I was drawing pretty thin here.

Anyone ever fold with this kind of action in front? I know, we have a set. But seriously, if we take the time to think about this innocent flop, what are they going crazy about on this board besides hands I listed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Guh... the idea of folding a set is icky, but you've definitely got one that's worth thinking about. Live 1/2NL players don't really bluff, like, ever. OTOH, they do over-defend their preflop raises, and they love play overpairs by slowplaying preflop and overplaying postflop. My guess on their hand ranges are something like...

UTG+1: {JJ-AA,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs}
CO: {77,JJ-AA}

and you're almost 50% against that range.

EDIT: You're still 44% if I pull AA completely out of CO's range, which should account for him re-raising QQ-AA preflop sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AJ is also in villains range, possibly KJ, QJ. Other Pocket pairs too 88-TT