Please help me understand this math problem

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

the 55% is to bet, not to raise. they use 55% because of the rough chance that you are river c/r, which against most players is a rarity.

you have huge equity in this spot tho

i call flop and raise turn for value. if he 3bets the turn im pretty sure i cap too but its close.

either way if he donks the river i just call

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

btw i say this because KK doesnt c/r that flop.

[threads13]

Hm, I keep thinking and thinking about it. If he 3-bets, he has KK nearly always. So, the problem is, if you want to take this line, you have to fold to a river 3-bet, imo. This line allows you to make this +EV.

Just thinking through it...

1. If you call the the c/r and play to raise/fold the river this will cost you a max of 3.5BB (possibility of no showdown).

2. If you raise and get capped it will cost you a max of 3.5BB (get to see a showdown).

3. If you raise and get called (assuming he flips into calldown mode) then it will cost you 3BB(likely see a showdown if he stays with you).

The EV of this all gets pretty confusing. There are so many factors. We would have to estimate the probability of this guy capping the flop with AK/KK. We also would have to estimate the probability of this guy smooth-calling the flop with AK/KK and then c/r'ing the turn(or donk/3-betting the turn).

That's a lot of P(X)'s. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

ok wait ill say a bit more before i go. lets use a different board to explain this.

say we have K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and using a special machine we can give our vil a range of exactly 2 hands, he has Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 55% of the time and 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 45% of the time.

preflop he raises and you call and go to the flop heads up.

the flop comes: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

he bets you call.

turn comes: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

he bets you call.

on which of these rivers can you make a value raise?

5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? or 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

i hope thats obvious enough that i made my point.
but the generalisation is to use second level thinking.

what does he think you have? does he have reason to be scared of you? what is the chance based on how you have played the hand, what he puts you on, and the board composition that he wont 3bet?

this hand is so simple because if he does have KK he knows 100% of the time he is ahead so must 3bet. it cant be generalised.

66% equity is actually pretty irrelevant.

if you can be 100% sure that he wont 3bet then you can raise with >50% equity.

split his range in to groups.

hands you are ahead of that wont 3bet
hands you are ahead of that will 3bet
hands you are behind that wont 3bet
hands you are behind that will 3bet

once you are able to do that the maths is pretty easy

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

[ QUOTE ]
Hm, I keep thinking and thinking about it. If he 3-bets, he has KK nearly always. So, the problem is, if you want to take this line, you have to fold to a river 3-bet, imo. This line allows you to make this +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

no no no no non nononononono

wtf.... if we have called down the turn when he 3bets the river we have cap=call>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>fold
people like me 3bet this river with AK 100% of the time.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
the 55% is to bet, not to raise. they use 55% because of the rough chance that you are river c/r, which against most players is a rarity.



[/ QUOTE ]

It is still 55% on a raise, promise.

I believe the distinction is if it is checked to you, you must be a 55% favorite to BE CALLED if you bet. If it is bet to you then you just need to be at least a 55% favorite to raise. This second one doesn't include the calling because most average players will just call your bet once they have already put one in.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hm, I keep thinking and thinking about it. If he 3-bets, he has KK nearly always. So, the problem is, if you want to take this line, you have to fold to a river 3-bet, imo. This line allows you to make this +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

no no no no non nononononono

wtf.... if we have called down the turn when he 3bets the river we have cap=call>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>
>>fold
people like me 3bet this river with AK 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we think this is the type of player that will 3-bet the river with AK, then he will probably cap the flop with it and continue to lead. Why not just put the raise in there?

You are laying 2:1 odds on your river raise. If you raise and get 3-bet, that cost you 2 bets to fold. If you raise and get called, you gain 1. If you are going to raise this river and get 3-bet the only hands you can put your opponent on that you beat is AK or a bluff. You have to discount the chances of either of these without a read.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

ok

you are simply not folding at any point in this hand absolutely regardless of what happens.

the word should not even be in your vocabulary

[milesdyson]

55% = Will you be "good" 55% of the time when your bet is called?

66% = Breakeven point for raising on the river if you intend to pay off a river 3-bet. Win 1, lose 2.

There is a flaw in the 66% number though, because you would never call the 3-bet if you always lost 2. Thus, as long as you expect to be good even 5% or so when you call the 3-bet, you can raise with slightly less than the 66% chance of being good.

Hope this clears everything up.

[HitNRunPoster]

[ QUOTE ]
btw i say this because KK doesnt c/r that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting and good response.