AQ hand, theory stuff

[HitNRunPoster]

You raise in early position and the CO calls you, as do some other players. You have AQ. The CO is extremely rocky.

Flop: AT4 rainbow.

Checked to you, you bet, rocky raises, the rest fold.

Rocky's range is: AK, AT, TT, 44. He will not fold the hand at any point during the deal. He will not three-bet the turn on a Q with any of his holdings. He will bet when checked to on the turn. If the board pairs the river, he will raise if he has a full house. He will call a three-bet on the river with hands like 44 on AT4QQ.

So... how much money do we expect to make post-flop and how what sized pot do we need to make it worth chasing the Q?

[Shillx]

Without thinking too hard...

13.5 SB

Actually somewhat less since a turn king/jack might give us extra outs. Still somewhere in the 13.2-13.8 SB range though.

[HitNRunPoster]

I didn't realize that this was as hard as it really was til now.

[ QUOTE ]
Without thinking too hard...

13.5 SB

Actually somewhat less since a turn king/jack might give us extra outs. Still somewhere in the 13.2-13.8 SB range though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really like a turned J, but I admit it's a decent card. It actually makes the river tough to play though, enough that it might be worth folding on the turn if we hit a J.

Firstly, looking at outs:

AK 8 hands 3 outs = 24 outs.
sets 6 hands 4 = 24 outs.
AT 6 hands 7 outs = 42 outs.

84 outs / 20 hands = 4.5 outs. I think we can check/fold the turn if we hit a J.

Oh man, this hand gets cooler as it goes on. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I didn't consider extra outs when we hit the Q, or when we turn an A....

I think that makes it a check/fold on the turn if it was a close decision on the flop.

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edit: if we hit JK, we are left with:

AT win 6 hands
AK win 6 hands
TT lose 3 hands
44 lose 3 hands.

So we're about 2/3 equity on the river. I guess we just bet there and expect 1 bet to go in no matter what, and we pick up 1/3 of a bet profit.

On a turned K, I don't know if I like our chances any more.
vs: ak 4 outs 6 hands = 24 outs
AT 7 outs 6 hands = 42 outs
sets 4 outs 6 hands = 24 outs... hmm, ok it's the same.


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So on the turn, with 4.5 outs we need 9.22:1, with -0.33:1 = 8.89 bets in the pot to make it a call on the turn (not inc rake etc etc). So we won't be able to make it to the river on a J if we call the flop with 13.5 bets in it.

So... we are left with the idea of drawing to the Q. Although, let's consider drawing to an A.

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If we hit the A, now:
AK 4 hands, 3 full outs + 6 to chop = 24 outs
AT 3 hands, 3 outs = 9 outs.
TT 3 hands, 4 outs = 12 outs.
44 3 hands, 7 outs = 21 outs.
So 56 outs / 13 hands = 4.3 outs.

I think this villain can fold 44 on AT4AT. I don't know for SURE that they can do it, but I think so. I know that RIO is becoming a factor though, when we turn an A, I just don't know how big of a factor.

River cards:
AT is probably a c/c on the river. we have 4 chops (4x AK chops), and we get value bet by AT (2 hands), so we lose 1/3 of a bet but we get to keep 1/3 of the pot. -0.33 (3 cards)

AQ gives us teh nutz and I think we can bet/3-bet the river here for max value, expecting to get called on our first bet by AK: +2.38 bets (6.7% chance = + 0.16bets)

AA is teh nutz, but I don't think that villain will call with 44, maybe TT... tough to say. It's kinda sick because if we hit the rivered A, it means that she had a set the whole time, lol. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] Obviously we have to bet, but I'd expect to get something like 0.2bb or less in profit on that bet. 0.2bb/45 cards =~ 0.

Does this make our implied odds on this river ~ +0.33 bb when we turn an Ace?

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I'm ignoring the QX's because we already know just checkraise the turn and bet the river, 3bet on a rivered Q or A and fold vs a river raise to any other river card.

So I think we can boil it back down to turning the Q, because we're not quite getting enough to see a river on AKJ turns. That gives us 3 outs on the flop, and it gives us 14.67:1 required odds.

If we expect to have 70% equity on the turn and river, and implied odds of 3bb, that should be a 40% profit for those 3bb = +1.2bb = +2.4bb and therefore we require 12.27sb to continue, right?

[Shillx]

Okay there are 45 unknown cards and 3 of them are queens. So w/o implied odds we need 14:1 to call. We will be a 14:6 favorite on the turn so our implied odds there is 1.6 SB. [censored] what I meant to say was 12.5 SB and not 13.5 SB. Math error. Add in another .8 SB on the river and you are looking at 11.6:1 to call the flop bet.

[HitNRunPoster]

Sweet, thanks man.

[Shillx]

That doesn't add in the times that you make a full house but it will be rare and won't change the implied odds too much. The probability of hitting a running boat (A-A, A-Q or Q-Q) is a little under 1.2%

[Jordy Boy]

I tried to follow your theorizing as best I could, but I got a little bogged down (how do we have 7 outs against AT?).

Would you mind explaining to me, a first-time poster, how we are a 14:6 favorite on the turn (is this assuming we turn a Q?), how specifically we get 1.6SB implied odds on the turn, and where does this other .8SB on the river come from?

I would apologize for being ignorant, but I'm on my way up. It's like learning to fish.

Thanks.