25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb's (PART TWO, turn play)

[HEK]

Part 1 of this hand IS HERE

Lots of good responses in that thread already. Since that one was already getting kinda long I decided to start another one about the turn play since my hand gets better but I still only have 9-high and we're still v deep.

The hand is here:


I have ~$15,000, Rounder9999 covers. He's a very good player. I have hardly any hands vs him but from what I can tell he's no lag but no tag...more like slag. He's involved in alot of pots.

He's been playing back at me a bit preflop (and on the flop a couple times). For the most part I've folded like every time. I pretty sure he thinks I'm weak-tight. I'm not playing my usual aggro game.

Folds to me on the button and I raise to $175 with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Rounder9999 repops to $625 from the SB. I call.

Flop ($1300) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He bets $1250. My action was debated in the previous thread. In the actual hand I just called.

Turn ($3800): Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] giving me a double-gutter to go along with my flush draw

He checks. Now what?

[fslexcduck]

bet 2500 and shove if he raises or something silly like that. if he calls and checks then i'm torn for plan for a river blank. obv shove if you bluff

[snagglepuss]

with this board/action the pot is usually going to be yours regardless of whether you get there or not. 3k turn. jam river if you miss unless it is Ao/Ko, then give him the eyeball and decide.

[riverboatking]

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bet 2500 and shove if he raises or something silly like that. if he calls and checks then i'm torn for plan for a river blank. obv shove if you bluff

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that is exactly what i was going to say duck.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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bet 2500 and shove if he raises or something silly like that.

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I bet ~2500 here also but if he c/r I don't know about pushing: any c/r would probably be to about 7500ish if not more leaving rounder with about 6000 left. if he has any semblance of a hand he's not going to fold at that point.

Also, if he calls and checks river it's an easy check if you miss. If a tough opponent c/calls the turn it's because he doubts you have anything due to your flop line. I don't think a river push will work often enough as he should be making his mind up on the turn.

I know, information changes on the river if you fire again, yada yada yada. But good luck getting him to fold after he's c/called turn.

[fslexcduck]

my point about pushing after he c/r - i realize he won't fold any hand that he could have, but often he has no hand at all, just A high or a low PP, so he will fold that. and when he has a low pair connected with the board, he will often let it go despite the odds bc of the scary board and our line looks quite strong. i think the times you save yourself 6k (if it gets all in we're losing 4k in equity) are outweighed by him occasionally folding the entire pot, when we can like 12k in equity or something.

[mindless]

Theoretically, if we check the turn through for whatever reason (if he checkraises he's pot committed and calling a shove in all likelihood) and the river comes a non-diamond ten, how do we feel about getting all the money in the pot, as AK suddenly gets very scary? I know it's not a big consideration, but it just popped into my head, as I was thinking about the likelihood of getting checkraised vs. the probability of hitting on the river vs. the probability of getting paid off on the river and whatnot.

If we bet 2500 and he folds, win 3800
If we bet 2500 and he checkraises, he probably calls a push and thus you've got maybe 13.5 outs (sometimes he has a set/higher flush draw or something) giving you about 30% equity, or you're losing something like 4K on average if my math is right.
If we bet 2500 and he calls, you'll still hit 30% of the time on the river. Let's say you check behind if you miss. When you hit, let's say he calls a 5Kish bet. So 30% of the time you win 11K.

Summarizing, bet 2500:
if he folds 25% of the time, checkraises 25, and calls 50 (I pulled those numbers out of my ass) your EV of betting is:
.25*3800 + .25*(-4000) + .5*.3*11000-2500 = -900. That's not so good. Of course, play with those percentages. It's really bad if he checkraises us frequently. I think I also assumed that he'd call all the time a river bet there. So, play with the precentages and you can see what you like.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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my point about pushing after he c/r - i realize he won't fold any hand that he could have, but often he has no hand at all, just A high or a low PP, so he will fold that. and when he has a low pair connected with the board, he will often let it go despite the odds bc of the scary board and our line looks quite strong. i think the times you save yourself 6k (if it gets all in we're losing 4k in equity) are outweighed by him occasionally folding the entire pot, when we can like 12k in equity or something.

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and I think you're absolutely insane. a c/r here is not going to be ace high or a low PP anywhere near as often as you think.

[HEK]

What hands do you think he c/r's with?

[trplthrt]

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my point about pushing after he c/r - i realize he won't fold any hand that he could have, but often he has no hand at all, just A high or a low PP, so he will fold that. and when he has a low pair connected with the board, he will often let it go despite the odds bc of the scary board and our line looks quite strong. i think the times you save yourself 6k (if it gets all in we're losing 4k in equity) are outweighed by him occasionally folding the entire pot, when we can like 12k in equity or something.

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and I think you're absolutely insane. a c/r here is not going to be ace high or a low PP anywhere near as often as you think.

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Totally agree.