400NL - QQ overpair facing some scary action on drawy flop

[Mossberg]

minraiser villain in this hand is a total donk - like 55/23/1.8 over 320 hands.

coldcaller seems kinda bad for his stats - 24/16. I'm pretty sure that he will always raise this flop with a set;.

Anyways, this is probably an easy hand but my brain isn't working today unfortunately.

Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $465.00
UTG+1: $209.60
CO: $629.80
Button: $400.00
SB: $368.80
BB: $193.25

Pre-flop: (6 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $16 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]</font>, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($52, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $40</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $100</font>, Hero ________?

[Praetor]

shove

I'd shove this also.

[Albert Moulton]

If I was heads up with SB, I think I'd be willing to call the small c/r. I'd want to see what happens on the turn since I have position on SB and can fold, bet or check behind if I want to. But, with the button behind you, I think it's better to get out from in between the SB and the button. If you just call, you'd be in a big pot without the benefit of position or even a backdoor flush draw. And I'm not big fan of reraising here, either, since all SB's possible combo draws would work best for him if the money went in on the flop.

So, fold.

[poker12]

hero shoves

[Mossberg]

[ QUOTE ]
If I was heads up with SB, I think I'd be willing to call the small c/r. I'd want to see what happens on the turn since I have position on SB and can fold, bet or check behind if I want to.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this was HU with sb, I'd be getting all my money in on the flop, NOT waiting to see what the turn brings on a board this drawy. Is this wrong?

[blankoblanco]

this is kind of weirding me out because draws often raise bigger here, unless he's got a sick combo draw and really wants action. it's like he's begging you to shove. i don't know, i expect this to be a set/combo draw decently often, and i feel like it's marginal between a fold and a shove, tbh

[Praetor]

^^ he is a retard

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
hero shoves

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm obviously underestimating the c/r'ers hand range. What is his hand range that makes shoving with QQ so overwhelmingly popular?

[blankoblanco]

[ QUOTE ]
^^ he is a retard

[/ QUOTE ]

i guarantee you this is not a huge + or - EV spot whether you shove or fold. it's marginal. if you just randomly folded 50% and shoved 50% every time this spot came up, it would not affect your winrate very much at all outside of variance. you expect him to have a smaller pair or something? he never does. plus there's more to act. anyway, reads can help sway to one or the other, although it's admittedly usually a (marginal) shove