Meh river spot against passive player

[Daddy Warbucks]

Villain is 27/3/2 over a 100 hand sample(some datamined). He's (obviously) been limping a lot of hands. This hand he'd just sat back in, and posted OOP, so take from that what you will(i didn't take very much). I don't know about my turn check, and am unsure about the river line.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $234.10
BB: $604.13
UTG: $360.29
CO: $200.00
BTN: $251.05

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO checks, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, BB folds, CO calls $8.00

Flop: ($22) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font>, CO calls $20.00

Turn: ($62) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $14.00</font>, Hero calls $14.00

River: ($90) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $53.00</font>, CO raises to $156(all in), <font color="red">Hero ?</font>

[Etats360]

I call. all the Tx's in his range make up for 44,99,QT,T9. He migh also have qj. You are about 42/58 againbst this range and you're getting about 3-1.

[Daddy Warbucks]

I don't think he pushes QJ though after i donk into him, especially after that turn bet.

[Nick Royale]

Any wtsd stat?

I think this is close vs a player this passive. I ran a sim vs a JTo+/T9s+/TT/99/44/KJ range and we had ~23% eq.

[Etats360]

even if you take QJ out of his range, you're getting the right call vs. what i think his range is here. I don't know how oftern he has AA or Kj here tho. DO you think his range is wider or smaller?

Board: Th 9s 4c Qc Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.049% 24.39% 03.66% 10 1.50 { AdTd }
Hand 1: 71.951% 68.29% 03.66% 28 1.50 { 99, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, J8s, T7s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, J8o, T9o }

[Veron]

27/3/2 isn't that passive postflop.

I Bet/Fold the turn. The board is fairly drawy and you're getting value from worse T's and draws.

As played I call the river.

[HoldEmNewby]

KT,JT we beat. KJ, 99,QT,T9,44 we lose to.

we're getting almost 3:1 on the river call. Villain seems rather incompetent so its hard to limit his holdings. Turn is the most telling place in the hand he bets small and then he pushes the river. I think this really takes away from the chance that he's making a total bluff. its close, and even though i may feel the need to fold, i'd still call.

[Daddy Warbucks]

[ QUOTE ]
27/3/2 isn't that passive postflop.

I Bet/Fold the turn. The board is fairly drawy and you're getting value from worse T's and draws.

As played I call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he flat calls the turn, bet/call river?

[Veron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
27/3/2 isn't that passive postflop.

I Bet/Fold the turn. The board is fairly drawy and you're getting value from worse T's and draws.

As played I call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he flat calls the turn, bet/call river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah

[74o_Clownsuit]

This is why I hate isolating from the SB with hands like AT.

As played I call. He can definitely have a worse T enough times to make the call profitable. Leading trips top ticker and then folding to a push sounds terrible when you've invested half the effective stack already to the pot.