how about this

[Kwaz]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah we're looking at Ax, Jx, clubs, possible a baby set. What I'm wondering though is what he thinks betting on the river with is good. Say he has JT - does he think betting this river with JT against you is good? What worse hand is calling? What better hand is folding?

The thing is, his flop range and turn range are the same, essentially. People typically don't fold to c/r's for 1 sb so he can't assume that changes anything. When he bets the river, does his range change? I don't know, so I would raise the turn against a wide range. One that I might be ahead of. And one that might not even let him 3-bet the best hand.

But now that we're at the river, the onyl real question is can he read your hand well. On the simplest terms this is most likely a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I was thinking. Word for word.

[danzasmack]

Kwaz,

Enjoy my internet high five.

[jba]

danza/kwaz,

so do you guys want to fold KK too? A5?

[Kwaz]

[ QUOTE ]
danza/kwaz,

so do you guys want to fold KK too? A5?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't speak for Danza but I don't think his river betting range narrows enough (especially without a super read) to throw away 7:1.

Once I was at the river, I'd hate it, but I'd call and expect to lose 6/7 times.

[danzasmack]

I'm taking both of those to showdown. But how I have not considered. Cheaply with KK, with A5 probably too.

[jba]

see that's the confusing part - you both want to call there and I do too. the problem is there are exactly two things we hope to see when we call with something a very weak hand on the end:

1. a lesser hand being bet for value
2. a bluff

obviously #2 isn't affected at all by our holding but #1 is. The difference between KK and QJ here is exactly and only KJ, right? is QJ that close of a decision?


the tangent that I really want to consider regardless of our holding: as a rough estimate, what % of villains range consists of better hands that are bet-folding? obviously impossible to know but how often do you expect something like A5 to bet/fold here?

[danzasmack]

I think if you raise on the river it's pretty much a "wtf" call. How can you bet/fold this river? I never would. You have either A9 or are trying to bluff me.

I guess what differs is that I wouldn't play your hand like you did.

But the real question is what WORSE hand does he bet for value? What does he reasonably bluff both streets with? So then shouldn't we always raise the turn when we are commiting ourself to showdown? Or 3-bet the flop for a free card play?

[Kwaz]

I think we lose too much value playing the hand any other way.

Raising the turn seems better only because we are ahead of his range a little more after a turn bet than a river bet.
But the value of raising, or 3betting the flop or whatever line you choose to regain initiative is immediately chewed up by the value you lose from the bluffs that can no longer continue to bluff.

[MacGuyV]

JT (or Jx) is such a no-mans land spot for him on the river that betting isn't a bad play IMO. C/F might be an ok play, but nobody ever really does that; and C/C stinks.
I kinda like raising the turn myself.

[milesdyson]

Kwaz most people are smart enough not to bluff this AJx flop and not to keep betting after we keep calling. I think it's nice to put in some more action so that you can make a "sure thing" fold later in the hand or so you can take your possibly best hand to showdown for cheap.