Pairs behind you (mathematics)

[WhiteWolf]

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If you have QQ and there are more than 2 overs behind you then at least one of them must be counterfeited and less likely to be paired.

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Individually, each paired overcard left to act has a lesser chance of being paired. However, collectively the duplicated overcards have a higher chance of being paired than a single upcard does:

1 overcard left to act = 14.6% chance of having a split pair (assuming their upcard is live)
2 duplicated overcards left to act = 19.2% at least one of them has a split pair