Take the coin flip or fold here?

[BigBiceps]

$25 PL Omaha tourney, 200 entrants, 18 paid.

15 players left. I am in 5th chip position with T40k and average stack is T35k.

Table seems to be tight most pot preflop raises are taking down the blinds (T1500,T3000).

I raise in late position to T10k, and get called by the chip leader T80k.

Flop comes and chip leader donk-bets the pot (in other words we are getting allin or I am folding). I am fairly certain we have a coinflip.

Do I fold leaving myself T30k or call for an ~50/50 shot for T80k (which would make me the chip leader)?

Payout structure is standard. 15th would be $60, 1st would be $1200.

[BigBiceps]

[Sherman]

I don't see how/why you would fold.

It would probably be better if you gave us your actual hand, reads on villain, and the actual flop.

But anyhow, there is dead money in the pot, if you think you have 50% equity there is no real reason not to push it. It's not like you can safely fold into 3rd place.

[Pokerfarian]

cEV/$EV have diverged but not massively here with 15 left & still a very top heavy prize structure. So 50% (80K) is definitely better than 30K. Would probably take a 50:50 shot at 70K rather than have 30K as well. But posting the whole hand would be useful as well, even if you got it in & it was a coinflip doesn't mean it necessarily was against his range.

[BigBiceps]

Ok, I did not think the hand was relevant because I thought it was a coinflip (it turns out I was right I was 52/48 favorite, even though I thought I was probably around 45/55 when I put the money in).

I had 789T with 2 hearts.
Flop was 8J3 with 2 hearts.

I have no reads on the guy other than he was the chip leader, since he just moved to our table about 5 hands ago.

[Dunkman]

No one in the world is good enough to pass up this kind of +cEV spot with stacks this shallow, you don't have any choice. You're risking 30k to win at least 81.5k in a coinflip, the cEV of this play is over a third of your stack. You'll never find a better spot to get your money in, especially in PLO. Even aside from this, all of the other factors are in favor of gambling for chips now anyway. The bubble just broke, so there's no real extra money to be made in the next few spots, the FT bubble is soon approaching, so you'd love to have a big stack to abuse people with. FWIW, I'd probably take a cEV neutral gamble in this spot because of those factors, so I'd definitely take this one.

edit: just saw the hand...ok so I went from shoving to turbo-insta shoving, you're never in bad shape here.

[BarryLyndon]

The key is that if you are down 40/60, you have to take it, because you will get there. The same goes for 35/65. You get into dangerous territory in Omaha when you are down 30/70 or ahead 60/40. 50/50 is trickier, but I think the rule is that if you can get your money in LAST, you improve your chances by 5%, therefore making the play +EV. So, this would be a fold.

No, it's a call, because you need to continue to get chips in an omaha tournament anytime you have a +EV situation. The game is so volatile and this seems like a perfect opportunity to get it in +EV.

Barry

[Crash0veride]

given hand and flop...our equity has to be much higher than the given 52% there? unless he flopped a set am I right?

[BigBiceps]

No, he had 3 overcards and the nut flush draw, which put me at 52%.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
No, he had 3 overcards and the nut flush draw, which put me at 52%.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Look, once you raise with the hand that you did in omaha and you see the flop that you are looking at, you just have to get your $$ in, and it's that simple.