Calculating $EV on pushing over raises?

[Acey]

Hey everyone.

I dont feel like buying sngwiz so i need to learn how to calculate when to push over peoples raises by hand.

Right now im only pushing over with like AK and JJ+, and im probably missing alot of +Ev because people raise pretty light sometimes.

So basically how can i calculate this by hand?

Lets say in the 50/100 blind 9 people have 1500 chips each and MP raises 3xbb with 55+ A8s+ AJ+, he will only call a push by me with TT+ AQ+ though.

Pls show your calculations.
Thanx!

[RexWoo]

or you could use the search function.

SlimPickens recently remade a post explaining the complete process. Look for it.

[eurythmech]

It's really simple to figure this out.

First you calculate your EV when the opponent folds, this is done with the help of a simple ICM calculator.
Such as http://www.poker-tools-online.com/icm.html

You then calculate the EV for when you get called, and lose. In this case, this EV is 0, but for cases when you cover villain, it will not be.

Then, calculate EV for when you get called and win.

Then figure out the total EV for getting called.
That is, run your hand against the calling range in poker stove. Let's say you are contemplating shoving tens here.

Run TT against TT+ AQs+ AQo+, this comes out as 40.3%.
I'm omitting ties here voluntarily, this saves us a few calculations, but causes the overall result to err slightly.
Very slightly. What you do then is multiply your EVcallwin by .403 and your EVcalllose by .597

Now, figure out how often he is calling us.

Opponent raises 55 pairs, 22 suited aces and 48 offsuit aces. This totals to 125 hands. Out of these 125, a total of 57 call us. Hence, opponent calls us 45.6% of the time.

Hence, our equity is .544 * EVFold + .456 * EVcalltotal

That make sense?

[eurythmech]

Note that, if you are not closing the action (ie you are bb), there is always the risk of being overcalled (which loses you equity).

Let's do this if we are in the bb, though.

EV if he folds is by ICM: 13.39%
EV if we double up is by ICM: 20.55%
EV if he calls is 20.55 * .403 + 0 * .597 = 8.28

Total EV is 13.39 * .544 + 8.28 * .456 = 11.06

This should of course be compared to our equity for folding, which is: 10.44

[IFoldPktOnes]

Here's how you work out the correct range (I assume you are on the BB).

Type stacks into an ICM calculator, for each possible outcome:

EV(fold) = 10.44 (1400 stack)
EV(steal) = 13.39 (1850 stack)
EV(win) = 20.55 (3050 stack)
EV(lose) = 0 (busto)

The number of ways of making various types of hands:
unsuited = 12
suited = 4
paired = 6

{55+ A8s+ AJ+} = 3*12 + 6*4 + 10*6 = 120 combinations
{TT+ AQ+} = 2*12 + 2*4 + 5*6 = 62 combinations

So from this we can work out the probabilities:
P(called) = 62/120
P(steal) = (120 - 62)/120 = 58/120

Set P(win) = X , P(lose) = 1-X

Now lets work out your EV relative to folding:
%EV = P(steal)*EV(steal) + P(called)P(win)EV(win) + P(called)P(lose)EV(lose) - EV(fold)
%EV = 58/120*13.39 + 62/120*20.55*X - 10.44

To find the value of X which is breakeven set %EV = 0 and solve for X:
0 = 6.47 + 10.62*X - 10.44
X = 3.97/10.62 = 0.3737

So every hand you push needs >37.37% equity vs {TT+ AQ+}

PokerStove it and you end up with the pushing range {99+ AK AQs+}

[eurythmech]

How do card removal effects come into play when we calculate range vs range?

[IFoldPktOnes]

Well the equities from PokerStove account for card removal, but yeah P(called) and P(steal) will be slightly off, unless you go through and do the combinations hand by hand.