Some thought on ...... ahem ..... Bad Beats

[KenProspero]

Over time, I've seen many posts about bad beats, etc. The following happened last night, and illustrates why I think people who bemoan their bad luck are often --- just plain wrong. Also, sharing part of my philosophy in a beginner's forum as to what is, and is not a bad beat.

Was playing in a $45/10 SnG last night and had the following two hands.

In both cases, I was BB, had an 'average'stack, (and roughly equal stacks with SB) and the First Hand Blinds (200/100) (about 10% of the total chips in play). Second Hand 200/400 (about 20% of the total chips in play)

First hand -- All in heads up against SB (he limped, I pushed). I show AQo, he shows AKo. I flop a queen and knock sb out of the tourneyment.

Second Hand -- SB limps, I check with 76s, Flop is 653 rainbow. SB checks, I push. SB calls shows 62o. Turn is a 2, River is a 6, and I'm gone.

I've seen many postings with similar facts as the second hand, complaining about getting all-in with a dominating hand and having the Villian Suck Out. However, I don't think see that many talking about the situation earlier in the tournament where the Hero gets lucky. IMO, it happens a lot.

Finally -- is either hand 1 or hand 2 a bad beat. I don't think so. With the Blinds as they were, I think my push in hand 1 was the correct move. When someone makes the correct move and gets lucky, it's not a bad beat. In hand 2, I can't fault villian from calling with TP no kicker (especially when he thought his gutshot draw gave extra outs). Not a bad beat, just got outdrawn.

[John in Michigan]

I hate to say it but it seems to me that many of my "bad" beats are situations where my gut (or the betting) told me I was beat and I didn't listen.

But I have also had a number of situations where I made what seemed to be the right move...as in got all the chips in and led opponent by far when the hole cards were turned over...only to get beat by one of the few outs left for opponent.

My recollection (I am writing this on a short work break) is that this tends to happen when opponent and I have the same high card, such as AK versus A9 or when my high card is better than his (AK v. Q10 or something like that). Flop and turn are junk and, in situations where we have the same high card, the last damn card pairs him and I lose.

Got beat by a pair of 2's on the river the other night...how frustrating is that? I dunno know if that is a bad beat but it sucked all the same.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Not a bad beat, just got outdrawn.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think getting all your money in with the best hand only to get outdrawn is pretty much the definition of a bad beat. How bad the bad beat actually is would depend on how far ahead you were when the money when in. For example, getting all-in for alot of chips on the turn only to lose to a 1-outter on the river is a really bad beat. Getting all in on the flop as a 4:1 favorite only to lose on the river is a bad beat. And losing a coin flip when you are a 55:45 favorite is still something of "bad beat."

But you really shouldn't get worked up about bad beats. The whole point of the game is to maximize the number of times that you make correct decisions and that your opponent makes incorrect decisions according to the fundamental theory of poker. If you do that, then over the "long run" you will make more money than you lose.

So, in your examples, while all of the actions are defensible, they are nevertheless "mistakes" on the part of the guy getting all-in as an underdog according to the FTOP. They are reasonable mistakes. They were made with incomplete information and based on a range of hands that made the "mistakes" seem correct at the time. But, they were still "mistakes."

So, give all the Skalansky bucks to the guy with AK for hand 1. Give the rest to you for hand 2. And don't worry so much about the results. Even a 2-outter on the river will show up more than 4% of the time.

[TheGam]

Maybe I have been playing too many cash games recently, but with only 7 top pair and only 1 card that could make a straight, surely you don't go all-in?

If you had raised by a decent amount you could have got a call on what he or he may have foled. Or better, maybe hit a straight, two pair or trips on the next card?

Limping in from SB he easily could have had A7, two pair, or 88+ PP

Personally I think the bad beat was unlucky but the call was bad. If you make a few of them throughout a tourni, you'll get knocked out by any of the above without Bad beats.

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I have been playing too many cash games recently, but with only 7 top pair and only 1 card that could make a straight, surely you don't go all-in?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, my push was a no-brainer (as was SB's call). When the blinds get this high there's really no other play.

[ev_slave]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I have been playing too many cash games recently, but with only 7 top pair and only 1 card that could make a straight, surely you don't go all-in?

...

Limping in from SB he easily could have had A7, two pair, or 88+ PP

[/ QUOTE ]

Late in tourneys when blinds start to get big, any top pair becomes a monster. In these late stages, VERY FEW people are limping with 88+. If he's playing BVB with an Ace, he's probably raising a good bit anyway: Any Ace is a favorite over 2 random hands, and any K is a favorite of one random hand. So in tourneys you'll see plays like raising big in BvB with KXs that you just won't see in cash games. So here, if you're afraid of the push, it's because the raggity flop is likely to hit 2 pair with his limped rags rather than villain having TPTK.