Party 200NL Meh, top two pair.

[Melchiades]

Villain is kind of weird 50/20/0.8 over 1500 hands. A fish obviously, but not as horrible as his preflop stats indicate. He minraises a lot preflop, hardly ever reraises. Calls down too much postflop, fairly passive. Never seen him semibluff a draw. I have valuestacked myself against him betting an overpair and he just calls down with weird two pairs and stuff. Really don't love my hand here since I'm not sure he raises AK on this flop.

Plan for the rest of the hand?

Just to help the discussion. My equity is slightly below 50% against a range of JJ/AQ/AJ/QJ/KT/AKs.

Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $337.11
UTG: $339.47
MP: $257.90
CO: $200
BTN: $195.55
Hero (SB): $210.50

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, BTN calls $2, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9</font>, BB calls $7, BTN calls $7

Flop: ($27) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $23</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $46</font>, BTN folds, Hero?

[Sciolist]

On the basis that we think he's passive, I really don't think it's wrong to fold here. What else can he be doing this with than a hand that beats us?

If we didn't have that read, the problem is that if we push here we are knocking out a decent part of his range that might give us more money on later streets (mostly the AK hands if we assume he's calling too much, but also perhaps QJ)

I think I'd therefore call and CRAI a non J/K/T turn, as it ensures that QJ/AJ/AK are going to put their money in with you.

[Jay Riall]

How is this ever anything but a shove? Aside from him doing something retarded with Ax/pair+gutter/pure bluff there are two smaller 2 pairs and very small chances of a set popping up.

[Melchiades]

[ QUOTE ]
How is this ever anything but a shove? Aside from him doing something retarded with Ax/pair+gutter/pure bluff there are two smaller 2 pairs and very small chances of a set popping up.

[/ QUOTE ]
It is the fact that I think I am about slightly below 50% against his range. I would be shocked if he raised Ax here. And would not be shocked if he called with QJ. This guy is on my buddylist, I have many hands vs him and my read is good. Trust it. Set is unlikely, but I can't remember seeing him reraise JJ preflop before.

Shove might still be the right play though. There is dead money in the pot which means being 50% is ok. Also a tiny amount of the time he might be bluffing I guess. Minraise on this flop with this preflop action is very unlikely though.

[HoldEmNewby]

there is already $96 in the pot. If you're just below 50% in equity i'd play it fast.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
there is already $96 in the pot. If you're just below 50% in equity i'd play it fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah we have that if even if he only ever has KT, JQ and AJ

[Melchiades]

96? How do you come to that number? It's 73, still enough to make this a shove I guess. Him folding AK or QJ if he decided to play it like this would be a small disaster though.

Call, CR any non K/T turn good?

[Sciolist]

[ QUOTE ]
96? How do you come to that number? It's 73, still enough to make this a shove I guess. Him folding AK or QJ if he decided to play it like this would be a small disaster though.

Call, CR any non K/T turn good?

[/ QUOTE ]
27 + 23 + 46 is 96

[Melchiades]

46? I don't get that math, I have to match those 23 extra. That is not dead money.

Edit: If we think he never bluffs so he won't fold that is.

[Sciolist]

[ QUOTE ]
Call, CR any non K/T turn good?

[/ QUOTE ]
We can work this out with equity calculations, it depends on how often he'll fold AJ/AK/QJ to shoves on the flop. We know how often a KJT will fall on the turn and assume he always bets if we check to him (which may not be the best assumption)

I don't have an equity calculator here to tell though.