Razz - calling 4th?

[iStackBooks]

Although I probably call here around half the time depending on how I feel about it at the moment, I think the right move is probably to fold 4th. Here's the math:

Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 556a2
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
a83t 40.70% 243,476 1,472
8-8-a9 59.30% 355,052 1,472

A9 and two cards 8 or under is a 60% favorite over A83T. Technically you are getting good pot odds (about 4-1)... but I don't think they are good enough to offset:

1. the difficulty of playing your hand on later streets (he has the betting power and you'll have to fold if he hits good)

2. heavy reverse implied odds (you are making the 2nd best hand a lot of the time here and paying him off all the way to 7th)

and such things as this

I would only want to play this if I thought I had a pretty significant skill advantage over my opponent.

[iStackBooks]

Or if he is known to bluff...

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
Or if he is known to bluff...

[/ QUOTE ]I haven't looked at this in a few days, but if I'm remembering the hand correctly, it was one of the two guys who had been at the .50/1 tables the night before and were really not too good. At all. I believe I thought he was likley to have a 9 or worse in the hole. Or worse. And he did bluff, but they weren't very good.

[iStackBooks]

In that case, go with it...