I really, really want to fold on the turn

One Outer · #1 10-01-2007, 07:44 PM

Canterbury Park 6/12 full game

Villain is actually someone I'm fairly familiar with. He thinks that he is a TAG, but he actually plays too many hands preflop. He's not real excessive. He's probably seeing 4 in 10 flops. He does weird stuff like call 2 cold with T8s on the button with only the raiser in. He is above average postflop and is capable of thinking his way through situations but generally doesn't do it very well. In particular he checks too many river scare cards and misses lots of river bets with top pair type hands. The two middle position players are typical white loose passive guys.

HERO is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero raises, 2 folds, MP calls, HJ calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls

Flop (6 handed, 12 SB)

K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB and BB check, Hero bets, MP and HJ call, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds

Turn (4 handed, 8.5 BB)

6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, Hero bets, MP and HJ call, <font color="red">SB raises </font>, Hero...?

I don't think I can fold here, but I really want to. I do think that the worst thing I can do is call because I want to force the at least one heart draw behind me to call two more. If we're going to continue the hand I feel that raising is the best play. I don't think we're going to see two pair here from villain very often. And the Ah is filthy even if that were the case. Any ideas? Thoughts?

Scarmiglio · #2 10-01-2007, 07:53 PM

Calling is the best option. SB may have 2 pair - like 68s and you can catch a 3, K, or A to beat him. On the other hand, he could have a set of sixes. your 3-bet will be 4 bet and now you're putting in a bunch of money drawing dead. He could also be raising a hand like KQ or KJ and your hand may be good. You also don't know for sure that one of the other players is on a heart draw. They may have a weaker King or a hand like A8. Just call.

One Outer · #3 10-01-2007, 08:07 PM

Great post. It got me thinking. I don't think I ever get four bet by 88, 66 or 33 here. I raised preflop UTG, and this particular Villain will put me on KK and start calling down if I three pop him. Does that change your opinion at all?

Scarmiglio · #4 10-01-2007, 08:28 PM

No. If I'm behind I don't want to put in more money than I have to. Keep in mind that if he does have a set you're drawing dead. If he has 2-pairs you're drawing to 8 (maybe 7) outs. Your 3 bet probably won't push a flush draw out (they still have odds to call) but it will push out hands that you have dominated and want to call.

jesse8888 · #5 10-01-2007, 09:43 PM

I call him here and am not too happy about it. You can't fold in a pot of this size. I agree with Tom Brady (who just threw a nice pick), raising is spewy.

One Outer · #6 10-01-2007, 10:41 PM

If I call, the river comes a heart that doesn't help my hand and SB bets what do I do? I've still got the two guys behind me. Or can we be pretty sure at that point that folding is cool because he's betting the heart?

existential_dred · #7 10-02-2007, 12:15 AM

does villian have any reason to believe he can scare you into folding top pair or are you fairly certain he is out in front? if you are beat, why try to bet out presumable flush draws for the villian's benefit? at the point in question, its 14.5 big bets to MP and HJ if you raise, so they are more than justified in calling 2 big bets anyway even if they aren't loose. if villian is bluffing, my guess is he is on a flush draw himself and trying to buy the pot. there is no reason to fold here unless you think villian is incapable of bluffing...

if you still want to fold it helps if you can definitely put him on a set. (you said he called two pre-flop raises too liberally...would he do anything irrational like cold call 1.5 small bets with suited K8 or K6 or K3?)

even then...you are not drawing dead against a set (other than KK)as Scarmiglio keeps pointing out. You are at worse, a 22:1 dog if villian has either a set or K8. if villian has any other two pair you have at least four clean outs making the call an easier one.

-dred

Scarmiglio · #8 10-02-2007, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
even then...you are not drawing dead against a set (other than KK)as Scarmiglio keeps pointing out. You are at worse, a 22:1 dog if villian has either a set or K8. if villian has any other two pair you have at least four clean outs making the call an easier one.

-dred

[/ QUOTE ]
How do you figure you're not drawing dead against a set on the turn? What card can you catch that gives you a better hand? If by 22:1 you're thinking that catching a King on the river will beat a set of sixes or threes, I think you need to look up the difference between trips and a full house.

existential_dred · #9 10-02-2007, 03:22 AM

good catch...i am new...still hard for me to read hands on a computer screen...

give me time

chesspain · #10 10-02-2007, 06:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Great post. It got me thinking. I don't think I ever get four bet by 88, 66 or 33 here. I raised preflop UTG, and this particular Villain will put me on KK and start calling down if I three pop him. Does that change your opinion at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

Reraising the turn is spew, since this weak-tight player is not checkraising the turn with a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Since you are almost certainly behind here, it would be foolish to charge the other players who are chasing, since you would also be charging yourself.

I think calling is O.K., but only if you have the discipline to fold the river UI, especially if either of the chasers calls the SB's river bet.