UFC 73 Thread

[DannyOcean_]

I didn't see a UFC 73 thread up here yet. Just figured I'd go ahead and start the discussion.

On a non-money making note:

WARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

MARQUARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRDT

[DannyOcean_]

Start with the main lines (got these from betus)

Anderson Silva-160 Nate Marquardt+130

I think Marquardt could easily be considered the favorite. Anderson does not have the best takedown defense, and marquardt has great GnP. I don't think he's thaaaaat much better standing and he will be considerably outwrestled/grappled. I take marquardt all day on this one.

[igetbadbeat]

If Anderson Silva were +130, I would bet on him.

[DannyOcean_]

Sean Sherk-230 Hermes Franca+180

I'm not sure what's the play here, or even if there is a play on this one from a quick glance. Sean Sherk is a monster in this division, but Hermes is no chump. I think Sherk takes this a good majority of the time, but i'm not sure about betting him here.

Tito Ortiz-130 Rashad Evans+100

Screw Tito Ortiz. What has he done in the last four years i'm supposed to be impressed by? He lost his title to couture, then lost to liddell.

This was followed by a decision win against Patrick Cote, and split decision wins against belfort and griffin. And he probably lost that griffin fight, that's a WHOLE other conversation. He then beats a shell of a fighter in shamrock twice. None of this is awe-inspiring.

So he gets another title shot and liddell tools him again. Where does this leave him now? Screw Ortiz, he hasnt done anything impressive in four years. I bet Rashad because i think he's the favorite. I don't think Tito is a better wrestler, striker, or submission grappler. I just want to reiterate, F TITO.

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
and marquardt has great GnP.

[/ QUOTE ]

? marquardt has terrible gnp

[DannyOcean_]

Yeah, I should explain. I use that term far too liberally, i mean to say that he is very skilled at wrestling you to the ground and controlling you. Not necessarily great technique, but i feel that if he wants to, he will take down Silva at will and then maintain the dominant position on the ground for 80% of this fight.


Edited to add: perf, when will you release your pics?

[trixtrix]

i should specify.

ftr, gnp stands for ground n' POUND. nate does half of that very well, he is actually very technical w/ his td, td def, and positioning. but his POUND part sucks, some due to lack of aggression, mostly due to the fact that he's so technical he's willing to forego small edges on the ground to avoid giving up a large mistake in the form of a sub. so while it makes him a very deliberate and cereberal fighter, it also make him appear defensive and boring to watch.

i agree that his wrestling and control is excellent, but his gnp sucks b/c he's unwilling to go out and punish his opponent despite having top-position due to his careful let's not get caught in a counter nature.

it's no big deal, i just tend to throw hissy fits when people don't use the correct mma technical terminology

[DannyOcean_]

i understand the 'correct the tuf noob' mentality. I had a guy at the bar explain to me during 72 (not worth buying, worth going to bar for) how tito ortiz would demolish fedor. I told him he was right and should find some sucker to prop bet with.

Marquardt is somewhat of a lay-and-pray er. He's not as bad as some people though, who just dog it completely once they get on the ground in a top position. I think he's getting better and can definitely do some damage.

[Performify]

My picks will be up when full lines hit, probably Tuesday.

-P

[irisheyes]

Funny but true:

All I've been reading this past month is that Marquardt is the best dog bet since Buster Douglas. Oh, and did I mention that I am a complete tool? Here's why--Back about May 25th or so, I was reading the threads here. I learned that Thiago Silva was going to beat the bejeezus out of James Irvin, and I needed to get some of that.

Not knowing f$ckall about UFC, I jumped at the chance to overbet Silva. Rush to my square book. Look up the futures odds for Silva. -200? Shiiiip it, bitsch! Give me 5 units on Silva.

UFC 71, 73? Who gives a sh#t? They must be the same thing, probably different locations or a typo, right? SUBMIT! What? Sportsbook.com only lists last names and no event dates? WTF? 7/7/07? How could this guy be fighting twice in 45 days? Wait! Oh, F#$CK #$ME!

Well, now here I sit with a -200 futures bet on a guy named Anderson Silva... who by the looks of it has a significantly smaller chance of being the lock of the century.

Luckily, I've had a great couple of months and this bet means nothing to my profit. I'm going to hedge here. Question, do I bet to break even on a Silva win or on a Marquardt win?

i.e. should Marquardt truly be the favorite, or should I just put 3.85u on him and eat a much smaller loss if he wins?