Patriot Defections

Kneel B4 Zod · #1 03-15-2006, 06:01 PM

It's time for the annual defections from the Patriots.

Big hits so far have been David Givens, Willie McGinest, and there is a good chance Vinatieri will leave. Sigh.

For us Pats fans, it's been "in Bill/Pioli" we trust..but sooner or later they aren't going to be able to replace some of these guys with draft picks/cheaper free agents.

McGinnest hurts, but I understand that he is probably near the end of the line. Givens seems harder to replace, but we'll see.

Vinatieri would hurt as well. Gotta pay him I think.

anywho, I still think the Patriots will be the best team in the NFL, so I'm not panicking, but it's sad to see some past top playoff performers go.

sam h · #2 03-15-2006, 06:07 PM

You beat me to it with posting about McGinest. Here is what I wrote before deleting the post.

It looks like the Pats never made an offer. Willie was one of my favorite Patriots ever, and so I'm not too happy about this although I understand the rationale. My biggest question is this though: From what I understand (could be wrong) the Pats are about 16-17 million below the cap. In the Kraft era, they have never underspent by any significant margin. So who do they have targeted here? It seems that they can't possibly skimp on Vinatieri at this point, but that is only about $3M per. I just don't really grasp the master plan for this off-season I suppose. Thoughts?

Kneel B4 Zod · #3 03-15-2006, 06:21 PM

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You beat me to it with posting about McGinest. Here is what I wrote before deleting the post.

It looks like the Pats never made an offer. Willie was one of my favorite Patriots ever, and so I'm not too happy about this although I understand the rationale. My biggest question is this though: From what I understand (could be wrong) the Pats are about 16-17 million below the cap. In the Kraft era, they have never underspent by any significant margin. So who do they have targeted here? It seems that they can't possibly skimp on Vinatieri at this point, but that is only about $3M per. I just don't really grasp the master plan for this off-season I suppose. Thoughts?

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the upcoming megadeal for Seymour will be expensive. That's 1 thing I guess. The Pats were just so razor close to the cap last year that they may want a little more leeway this year in case injuries hit them hard (for like the 5th year in a row).

I agree that McGinest didn't make sense at $7m per, but I don't understand how they didn't even attempt to resign him. They also released Chad Brown, so they are clearly trying to get younger at LB. They must have a lot of faith in Colvin. they will probably draft high at LB I think.

I agree that signing Vinatieri sounds like a no brainer, even if he's the most expensive K in the league. The numbers they are talking about just aren't that big.

sam h · #4 03-15-2006, 06:30 PM

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the upcoming megadeal for Seymour will be expensive. That's 1 thing I guess. The Pats were just so razor close to the cap last year that they may want a little more leeway this year in case injuries hit them hard (for like the 5th year in a row).

I agree that McGinest didn't make sense at $7m per, but I don't understand how they didn't even attempt to resign him. They also released Chad Brown, so they are clearly trying to get younger at LB. They must have a lot of faith in Colvin. they will probably draft high at LB I think.

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I think you are spot on here. They really do need to get younger and some more depth at LB. I expect to see them focusing there and at CB (again) in the draft. I honestly don't see why they like Colvin so much.

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I agree that signing Vinatieri sounds like a no brainer, even if he's the most expensive K in the league. The numbers they are talking about just aren't that big.

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I will throw up in my mouth if they let Vinatieri go because they think he's worth $2.5M per and some team offers him $3M and change.

Aces McGee · #5 03-15-2006, 06:33 PM

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Vinatieri would hurt as well. Gotta pay him I think.

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Isn't the whole point of the Patriots' philosophy that you don't overpay for anybody?

Vinatieri made 80% of his FGs last season. That's pretty good, but it was only the 16th-best percentage in the league. Okay, he probably had to kick in some bad weather, so you can bump that up a bit. But is he really worth $3 million a year?

Yeah, he's hit some pressure kicks, but it seems likely that there are plenty of kickers who could have made them and just weren't given the opportunity. It's not like he's got an unbelievably strong leg or incredible accuracy. He just happens to have been given the opportunity to make some big kicks, and he's executed at the right time.

Doesn't seem worth it. I'd venture the money they save letting him go would be better spent elsewhere, like replacing Givens or McGinest (EDIT: Just FYI, I don't know how much money they'd actually be saving).

-McGee

Kneel B4 Zod · #6 03-15-2006, 06:37 PM

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Vinatieri would hurt as well. Gotta pay him I think.

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Isn't the whole point of the Patriots' philosophy that you don't overpay for anybody?

Vinatieri made 80% of his FGs last season. That's pretty good, but it was only the 16th-best percentage in the league. Okay, he probably had to kick in some bad weather, so you can bump that up a bit. But is he really worth $3 million a year?

Yeah, he's hit some pressure kicks, but it seems likely that there are plenty of kickers who could have made them and just weren't given the opportunity. It's not like he's got an unbelievably strong leg or incredible accuracy. He just happens to have been given the opportunity to make some big kicks, and he's executed at the right time.

Doesn't seem worth it. I'd venture the money they save letting him go would be better spent elsewhere, like replacing Givens or McGinest.

-McGee

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1. he's the best kicker in the league. could other people have succeeded in all of the same spots he did? I dunno. I doubt it. to assume so is foolish I think.
2. yes, the Pats rarely (or never) overpay. But we are probably talking about an additional $500,000 per year here, not millions. this is money well spent. not signing Vinatieri would probably be penny wise/pound foolish

Aces McGee · #7 03-15-2006, 06:51 PM

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he's the best kicker in the league.

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I guess this is the part I dispute. He hit 80% of his FGs last year, which is middle of the pack. How are we defining best?

(I'm not asserting that he's the 16th-best kicker in the league; like I said before, he could have had to kick in more bad weather than some others, and so his percentage is lower. But it seems unlikely to me that someone who hits 80% of their kicks is the "best" kicker in the league,)

-McGee

Kneel B4 Zod · #8 03-15-2006, 06:56 PM

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he's the best kicker in the league.

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I guess this is the part I dispute. He hit 80% of his FGs last year, which is middle of the pack. How are we defining best?

(I'm not asserting that he's the 16th-best kicker in the league; like I said before, he could have had to kick in more bad weather than some others, and so his percentage is lower. But it seems unlikely to me that someone who hits 80% of their kicks is the "best" kicker in the league,)

-McGee

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who's better?

also, your point about "other guys might have suceeded in the same spots Vinatieri did". Maybe. but until they do, you can't give them credit for it, and once you find out they can't make clutch kicks...well it's too late. The clutch kicks Vinateri has made are worth a ton in the argument that he is best.

Aces McGee · #9 03-15-2006, 06:59 PM

To be fair, Vinny did hit 94% of his kicks in 2004.

Of course, Vanderjagt hit only 80% in 2004, but went 37-for-37 in 2003.

Two points can be made from this, I think:

1)One season isn't a sufficient sample size
2)Kickers performances, as measured by % of kicks made, can vary widely from year to year. Vinny and Vanderjagt are just two examples.

To take a fantasy football concept and apply it to real football, there's always some jackass who drafts a kicker in the early rounds, to ensure he gets "the best one." And he always ends up having a horrible team, because he "overpaid" by taking a kicker too early and missed out on a third running back or wide receiver with that pick.

Overpaying for a kicker isn't likely to turn the Patriots into a horrible team, but I do think it could hurt them. Although if it truly is only $500k, then maybe it's not such a big deal.

-McGee

Aces McGee · #10 03-15-2006, 07:08 PM

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who's better?

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Vanderjagt, Dawson, Graham, and Stover all have comparable, if not better, three-year records. If Viniateri is the "best," it's not by much.

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also, your point about "other guys might have suceeded in the same spots Vinatieri did". Maybe. but until they do, you can't give them credit for it, and once you find out they can't make clutch kicks...well it's too late. The clutch kicks Vinateri has made are worth a ton in the argument that he is best.

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Meh. I don't want to get into the "clutch is a myth argument." Ask some SABR guys if you don't know what I'm talking about. But suffice it to say I don't put too much stock into a few game-winning kicks. I give much more credit to the fact that he hit only three-fourths of his kicks in 2003 and four-fifths in 2005.

-McGee