Teasing NFL With NCAAF

[Post-Oak]

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he started the name-calling, my initial post was trying to get him to understand in a subtle way


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You must be crazy.

Calling us a bunch of squares is your subtle way to nudge us towards enlightenment?

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that all he's doing in this scenario is -ev hedging..


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That's exactly wrong. Do you even know what a teaser is? Can you not see that the NCAA leg is EV neutral or +EV?

Can you not understand that teasers must have at least TWO legs, and therefore it would even be acceptable to have a slightly -EV leg if there was no other way to get the teaser done?

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instead he responded by calling me stupid and insinuates that i add no value..


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You were acting like an obnoxious [censored] in your post (well it wasn't acting [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

On top of that, I had wrongly assumed that you were just pointing out the incredibly obvious fact that 70.7% is the break even rate for an even money teaser.

As it turns out, the post was completely over your hand, and it appears you don't even know what a teaser is, let alone a BST.

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so i added some value: parlaying -241 leg w/ another -241 leg, and then buying back the last leg at +230 is not all that good of a idea.. no matter how much you masquerade about it..

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Why do you keep talking about parlays?

Why do you keep talking about hedging?

[Thremp]

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i don't get the trixtrix hate

it's the general idea that has merit

I mean, right now Miami FL is -6.5 -112 with a -275 v +243 ML on Pinny. If this was the market efficient rate, that means the ML has about a -259 real value. The market is saying that the -6.5 6-point teaser should hit over 72% of the time, which would be a positive leg for a +100 book on two team teasers. With the right books and right situation, this is a good tool to have in your repetoire. The problem is the NCAA games played on Saturday and NFL on Sunday, so who knows if you got the market closing for NFL games. But, all in all, this is a good thought process.

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I think we're the only two people who're looking beyond the actual words into what the implications of this are. Sadly I think the rest of the world wants it spelled out in explicit detail. Much like how you did that prop bet analysis or how I did it as well. Whatev.

[Post-Oak]

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While interesting, and worthy of discussion, seems to me if we are assuming the NCAA lines are efficient, we just tease NFL games with BS wong teasers then.

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I don't understand how or why you come to this conclusion. BST or Wong teasers work so well because they cross the 3, 4, 6 and 7 (especially the 3 and 7).

If these key numbers are not as important in NCAAF, then maybe it is better to go from -6.5 to -0.5 than from -7.5 to -1.5.

I don't know the answer, I am just saying that I wouldn't assume the Wong/BST method is superior for NCAAF.

I would like to see someone look at this mathematically.

[Thremp]

PO,

Umm... You can find a push frequency chart that was done before for BST in NCAA. It seems that it could be +EV to do BST for college, but the edge is thinner and much more up for debate. If you can find better pricing than +100 and do better subsets... Yes, you could likely make some monies.

[Post-Oak]

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did he say that he was doing this to get around max limit exposure? no


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Why would I have to tell you this?

Do I have to tell you to pay your electric bill so your computer will work, otherwise you won't be able to get to the internet?

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did he say anything at all about expecting neutral or -ev from the ncaa leg? no


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Why do I have to spell this out?

Isn't everyone supposed to know that 70.7% is the breakeven point? Do you really think I didn't know that?

Furthermore, did you not notice that I said you should look for the "best" -6.5 moneylines you can find, which would result in a +EV NCAAF leg?

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did he even mention kelly bet-sizing? no


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Why would I mention this???

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you're simply trying to find outs to justify his position and save face, gg


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People like Thremp can read what I wrote, understand what I was thinking, and grasp the implications. You cannot. That's not my fault.

[Post-Oak]

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he's merely trying to justify betting a single nfl teaser leg at odds slightly worse or equal to -241, what he would've paid for a +100 2 teamer.


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The justification is simple; the bet is +EV and there is no such thing as a one team teaser.

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here's a far more simplistic and optimal approach to synthetically recreate his whole method: tease the nfl leg w/ ncaa -6.5 leg for 1u to win 1u. place .426u on ncaa underdog ml at +235 to 1u.


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Where can I find this +235 ML? If the underdog were +235 on the moneyline, than I would expect the favorite to be -275. This would mean that the true line should be -255/+255, meaning a 71.8 win pct for the favorite. This would represent a significantly +EV leg of the teaser.

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boom! you just synthetically constructed a 1.426u to win .574u single leg nfl teaser at -248 line. in which case it doesn't matter which ncaa team it is on or even how likely you think they're to win..


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In the example you give (a +235 ML), I would much prefer the teaser, which would have a 52.4% chance of winning, for a cool 4.83% edge.

Your -248 "single leg teaser" would have an edge of 2.44%.

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all it matters in my apporach is the ability to tease the ncaa team at -6.5 and the comeback dog ml is +235 or better.


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Again, if the dog ml is +235, then the NCAA team will be 71.8% to win. If you could tease two such teams, the edge would be 3.1%, still better than your "single leg teaser".

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see: my method is far more efficient/superior and optimal.. welcome to the world of rsat the credit derivatives market discovered over a decade back..

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Um, no.


SWING AND A MISS!

[Thremp]

PO,

I think he just wanted you to connect the dots. Some of your posts, while I disagree with, do seem to exhibit some fundamental understanding of sports betting. Maybe I'm giving you more credit than you're due, but the best usage of the above would be to circumvent limits on an event. If your kelly stake wants you to put 2.5k down on a teaser, but you are limited at 5Dimes to 500 (in a world where they don't shade) you could find use for what you posted. I thought it was an interesting look at another possibility even if the idea isn't super awesome in and of itself.

[Post-Oak]

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PO,

Umm... You can find a push frequency chart that was done before for BST in NCAA. It seems that it could be +EV to do BST for college, but the edge is thinner and much more up for debate. If you can find better pricing than +100 and do better subsets... Yes, you could likely make some monies.

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Thanks. I'll look for this.

[Post-Oak]

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PO,

I think he just wanted you to connect the dots.


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Actually, I think he doesn't even know what a Basic Strategy Teaser is. He seems really confused.

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Maybe I'm giving you more credit than you're due, but the best usage of the above would be to circumvent limits on an event. If your kelly stake wants you to put 2.5k down on a teaser, but you are limited at 5Dimes to 500 (in a world where they don't shade) you could find use for what you posted.


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I did realize that it could help me get around the $500 limit. I almost mentioned this in the first post, but did not. It should be obvious though.

More important to me was to find a way to get around 5Dimes' tweaking of BSTable NFL lines. I looked real quick today and saw one NFL game which is teaseable.

One thing I like is that the example teaser would have greater EV than two 73% legs of a -110 payout teaser. I almost mentioned this too, but figured it is also obvious.

Sometimes you just don't feel like writing a book, you know?

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I thought it was an interesting look at another possibility even if the idea isn't super awesome in and of itself.

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I have never even placed one of these bets, it is just something I am looking into. It was never meant to bring about a revolution or anything.

[Daliman]

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While interesting, and worthy of discussion, seems to me if we are assuming the NCAA lines are efficient, we just tease NFL games with BS wong teasers then.

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I don't understand how or why you come to this conclusion. BST or Wong teasers work so well because they cross the 3, 4, 6 and 7 (especially the 3 and 7).

If these key numbers are not as important in NCAAF, then maybe it is better to go from -6.5 to -0.5 than from -7.5 to -1.5.

I don't know the answer, I am just saying that I wouldn't assume the Wong/BST method is superior for NCAAF.

I would like to see someone look at this mathematically.

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I can't see any scenario where going from 6.5 to .5 is more or even = EV to 7.5 to 1.5, whether you are talking NFL, NCAA, or Intramural Flag football.

Now, if the book started actively dissuading crossing 3 and 7, you have the workings of something here, I'd say. But while 2 and 1 are likely of more use in NCAA than NFL because of overtime(don't they say at 3rd poss. or so no more kicking extra points?) I still can't imagine they add up to near what the full 7 is worth.