Teasing NFL With NCAAF

[Daliman]

While interesting, and worthy of discussion, seems to me if we are assuming the NCAA lines are efficient, we just tease NFL games with BS wong teasers then.

[Caldarooni]

I appreciate what Trixtrix has done in this thread.

Regards,

Calda

[Thremp]

Umm... This post is v v good, not in that he gives away much EV, but it opens up the entire idea. This is an example of how you actually make money in sports betting. Std outside the box thinking into essentially how to circumvent limits by taking a coinflip situation in addition to a +EV one.

trix,

Your comp sucks. Would you never take a -275 that is listed at -240 and parlay it with a variety of neutral EV options for increased exposure if your kelly stake was larger than the wager limits? Obv yes.

[humdinger]

[ QUOTE ]
Umm... This post is v v good, not in that he gives away much EV, but it opens up the entire idea. This is an example of how you actually make money in sports betting. Std outside the box thinking into essentially how to circumvent limits by taking a coinflip situation in addition to a +EV one.


[/ QUOTE ]

Amen.

I've made money for years betting correlated parlays in college football. Sadly, most of my spots have dried up now. I have one spot still available, but with small limits, and I can't do a strict parlay on the game (or half).

For example, last week, in the first half, LSU was favored by 24 with a total of 27 (or was it 21 with a total of 24?) vs. Tulane. Let's pretend the total is a true coinflip. Now, if the game goes under 27, I feel dang confident that LSU will not cover.

So, I want to parlay Tulane +24 with the under 27. This is a simple concept.

However, I have very small limits where I can do this.

But...if I also throw in another bet on the parlay, I can increase my exposure. So, now I make a threeteam parlay...Tulane, Under, and the money line bet on a some obscene favorite in CFB. In all honesty, is -1000 moneyline bet on a favorite a +EV bet? Likely not. But it was definitely worth it to be able to bet more on the Tulane/Under parlay.

At least, that's what I think Thremp is saying.

Good luck, all.

hd

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]

trix,

Your comp sucks. Would you never take a -275 that is listed at -240 and parlay it with a variety of neutral EV options for increased exposure if your kelly stake was larger than the wager limits? Obv yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

did he say that he was doing this to get around max limit exposure? no

did he say anything at all about expecting neutral or -ev from the ncaa leg? no

did he even mention kelly bet-sizing? no

you're simply trying to find outs to justify his position and save face, gg

w/ threads like this, i highly doubt the books will limit your exposure in any case. i'm sure the book will allow u to play -241 and hedge back at +240 all day..

and if they won't, call me up b/c i'll book that deal into the 7 digits

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
While interesting, and worthy of discussion, seems to me if we are assuming the NCAA lines are efficient, we just tease NFL games with BS wong teasers then.

[/ QUOTE ]

but that's whole pt, it DOES NOT matter if the ncaa ml is efficient. b/c in his example he's only expecting neutral or slightly -ev from his ncaa leg anyways.

so it doesn't matter what the "actual fair" line is, it only matters what the "market fair" line is.

he's merely trying to justify betting a single nfl teaser leg at odds slightly worse or equal to -241, what he would've paid for a +100 2 teamer.

here's a far more simplistic and optimal approach to synthetically recreate his whole method: tease the nfl leg w/ ncaa -6.5 leg for 1u to win 1u. place .426u on ncaa underdog ml at +235 to 1u.

boom! you just synthetically constructed a 1.426u to win .574u single leg nfl teaser at -248 line. in which case it doesn't matter which ncaa team it is on or even how likely you think they're to win..

all it matters in my apporach is the ability to tease the ncaa team at -6.5 and the comeback dog ml is +235 or better.

see: my method is far more efficient/superior and optimal.. welcome to the world of rsat the credit derivatives market discovered over a decade back..

[TomCowley]

[ QUOTE ]
here's a far more simplistic and optimal approach to synthetically recreate his whole method: tease the nfl leg w/ ncaa -6.5 leg for 1u to win 1u. place .426u on ncaa underdog ml at +235 to 1u.

boom! you just synthetically constructed a 1.426u to win .574u single leg nfl teaser at -248 line. in which case it doesn't matter which ncaa team it is on or even how likely you think they're to win..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but if your NCAA teased leg loses, your teaser loses (-1u), and your dog covers (+1u), for a net push, and your NFL leg doesn't play any part at all.

You've created a derivative that is effectively:

If NCAA teased leg wins, bet 1.426 @-248 on the NFL tease, otherwise no bet.

Your teaser derivative has the odds listed, but ~30% of the time it will randomly get No-Actioned in advance.

Edit: Which is what happens the other way, but the other way has much higher variance for a very slightly higher reward, and it's dependent on a fair line. Neat.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]

see: my method is far more efficient/superior and optimal.. ... credit derivatives market discovered over a decade back..

[/ QUOTE ]

Pls, not while I'm not working. Thinking about how Wong teasers relate to CDS makes my head hurt.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
so essentially to derive the the edge you obtain from -241 nfl leg (i don't know where you got the 73% from, likely from the same hole you obtain all your other ideas), you're willing to parlay it w/ another -241 leg that you KNOW is -ev?


[/ QUOTE ]

-241 NFL leg? What in the world are you talking about? You don't even know what a Basic Strategy Teaser is, do you?

I figure you are talking about a -241 ML because a 2 team teaser with an even money payout is break even if both legs are 70.7% to win (or -241 ML as you so un-elegantly put it). But what does "-241 ML" have to do with the NFL leg? I already said that we are assuming that the NFL leg has a 73+% chance to win.

As for where the 73% chance to win comes from, look into Basic Strategy Teasers.

[ QUOTE ]

so why stop there? why not just tease the nfl and ncaa fav -6.5, and then hedge back ncaa dog on the ml for +230?


[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you see a +230 ML??? In the example I gave, the moneyline for Army is +225/-265. This puts Army's actual chance of winning as -245 (71%), if we assume that the moneyline is efficient (an important assumption for our thought experiment, although it could be wrong).

So first of all, the NCAAF leg of the teaser is not -EV. It is slightly positive EV. Second of all, why would we want to hedge at +225 when the fair line would be +245? You lost me.

[ QUOTE ]

next time i see a fighter that has true odds of -275 that has a sticker-price of -241, i'll parlay him w/ another -241 priced fighter that has only a -200 chance of winning..


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL.

Do you not even understand that there is no such thing as a one team teaser? And where do you see me adding a -EV leg to the teaser???

[ QUOTE ]

and afterwards i too can start a thread proclaiming my genius..


[/ QUOTE ]

I never proclaimed my genius. Why are you going crazy over this? I spent about 30 mintues thinking about this, and then made a post. I was thinking about how to get around 5Dimes anti-teaser line tinkering, as well as their $500 max bet, and I came up with this.

I posted this for FEEDBACK. I wanted to know if anyone sees a problem with this, or has anything constructive to add.

Maybe the moneylines are not efficient?

I also wanted to raise the idea that NCAA teasers are not as awful as some people have been indicating.

I never said that this was groundbreaking, or that it was the be-all, end-all of teasers. I am not even saying that the -6.5 lines are the best to add as the second leg. There could be other non-BST NFL legs that would be better to add, or other NCAAF lines that would be better.

I only chose -6.5 because it is possible to mathematically prove, that if the moneylines are efficient, it is +EV to tease in this way.

Calm the [censored] down.

[MyTurn2Raise]

i don't get the trixtrix hate

it's the general idea that has merit

I mean, right now Miami FL is -6.5 -112 with a -275 v +243 ML on Pinny. If this was the market efficient rate, that means the ML has about a -259 real value. The market is saying that the -6.5 6-point teaser should hit over 72% of the time, which would be a positive leg for a +100 book on two team teasers. With the right books and right situation, this is a good tool to have in your repetoire. The problem is the NCAA games played on Saturday and NFL on Sunday, so who knows if you got the market closing for NFL games. But, all in all, this is a good thought process.