Teasing NFL With NCAAF

[Post-Oak]

Let's assume that, using Basic Strategy Teasers, you can win the NFL side of this teaser 73+% of the time.

Shouldn't teasing that NFL side with a -6.5 NCAAF favorite result in a +EV teaser (at a book which pays even money)?

Let's take a look at the numbers. 5Dimes has 2 NCAAF games this week that have -6.5 lines:

Tulane +6½ -110 +225
Army -6½ -110 -265

Oklahoma State +6½ -110 +220
Texas A&M -6½ -110 -260

The important thing to look at here is the moneylines. These games are handicapped as having a fair value moneyline of +245/-245 and +240/-240 (looking at Pinnacle we get +/-244 and +/-230).

Let's take Army -6.5 as our example then. If we assume the moneyline is efficient/accurate, then Army has a 70.588% (24/34) chance of winning this game.

0.73 X 0.70588 = 51.53%

Betting this teaser at even money looks to be a +EV bet (a 3.06% edge in this case).

Looking at this, I am not so sure that NCAAF teasers are quite as horrible as people are making them out to be. Unless there is an inefficiency in NCAAF moneylines for -6.5 spreads which has not been exploited yet...

The strategy here would of course be to look for favorable moneyline games (for example -6.5 -275), where the line is assumed to be sharp, and tease them with BST NFL sides at books that pay even money for teasers.

Edit: Not sure why I rounded down the fair moneyline from -245 to -240 for Army, but the win pct would of course just be even higher.

[Thremp]

Posts like this make me sad you make them.

[MyTurn2Raise]

post-oak

you are basically seeing the second level of what is in Sharp Sports Betting

nice work

[trixtrix]

uh you do realize all the +ev in this case comes from the nfl side of the teaser right?

here's the breakdown: the 2 team even money teaser is essentially -241 ml per leg. so essentially assuming a fair ml of -245 and -230 for the ncaa leg, you're essentially breaking even in the former case and losing value in the latter case. therefore, any edge you derive this type nfl/ncaa teaser combination is solely from the nfl teaser leg. therefore ncaa leg in these examples offer absolutely no value except as a break-even filler (actually worse in the 2nd case).

in other words: 2 team +100 teaser= -241 leg A/ -241 leg B, if leg B is ncaa teaser w/ ml ~-241. in order for the whole combination to be +ev, the entire edge MUST be derived from leg A.

but carry on, it's fun to watch the considered forum elite pile on the square love..

[Austiger]

-2.75 isn't a favorable ML in your scenario.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
uh you do realize all the +ev in this case comes from the nfl side of the teaser right?

here's the breakdown: the 2 team even money teaser is essentially -241 ml per leg. so essentially assuming a fair ml of -245 and -230 for the ncaa leg, you're essentially breaking even in the former case and losing value in the latter case. therefore, any edge you derive this type nfl/ncaa teaser combination is solely from the nfl teaser leg. therefore ncaa leg in these examples offer absolutely no value except as a break-even filler (actually worse in the 2nd case).

in other words: 2 team +100 teaser= -241 leg A/ -241 leg B, if leg B is ncaa teaser w/ ml ~-241. in order for the whole combination to be +ev, the entire edge MUST be derived from leg A.

but carry on, it's fun to watch the considered forum elite pile on the square love..

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.

I'm blown away how dumb you are.

Are you really asking me if I realize that 73% X 73 % is > 73% X 70.5%?

The whole point is that sometimes you will not find two BSTs in one week, especially at 5Dimes where they shade the lines against teasers.

Please go back into your hole; I've seen you try and make an actual contribution a couple of times and it's always been a swing and a miss.

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
uh you do realize all the +ev in this case comes from the nfl side of the teaser right?

here's the breakdown: the 2 team even money teaser is essentially -241 ml per leg. so essentially assuming a fair ml of -245 and -230 for the ncaa leg, you're essentially breaking even in the former case and losing value in the latter case. therefore, any edge you derive this type nfl/ncaa teaser combination is solely from the nfl teaser leg. therefore ncaa leg in these examples offer absolutely no value except as a break-even filler (actually worse in the 2nd case).

in other words: 2 team +100 teaser= -241 leg A/ -241 leg B, if leg B is ncaa teaser w/ ml ~-241. in order for the whole combination to be +ev, the entire edge MUST be derived from leg A.

but carry on, it's fun to watch the considered forum elite pile on the square love..

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow.

I'm blown away how dumb you are.

Are you really asking me if I realize that 73% X 73 % is > 73% X 70.5%?

The whole point is that sometimes you will not find two BSTs in one week, especially at 5Dimes where they shade the lines against teasers.

Please go back into your hole; I've seen you try and make an actual contribution a couple of times and it's always been a swing and a miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice try sugar, but your response is far more of a hit and miss than any of my post ever will be. so essentially to derive the the edge you obtain from -241 nfl leg (i don't know where you got the 73% from, likely from the same hole you obtain all your other ideas), you're willing to parlay it w/ another -241 leg that you KNOW is -ev?

so why stop there? why not just tease the nfl and ncaa fav -6.5, and then hedge back ncaa dog on the ml for +230? that's essentially what you're doing.. what fuuking brilliant idea!! let's all start threads on this type of -ev hedging masked as brilliance..

next time i see a fighter that has true odds of -275 that has a sticker-price of -241, i'll parlay him w/ another -241 priced fighter that has only a -200 chance of winning..

and afterwards i too can start a thread proclaiming my genius..

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
-2.75 isn't a favorable ML in your scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I take this back. You're not actually paying the -275 price. You're teasing it, so you're actually looking for the -6.5 with high priced MLs...I see where you're going with this, but...

If you're looking for a slightly -EV option to tease your ++EV unmatched teaser with then you should say that at the outset. I think a much better post would be to show how high the ML needs to be to make it +EV on it's own.

trixtrix- you're being a jerk. Chill out.

[hogua]

I say make the bet. What's the worst that can happen?

[trixtrix]

he started the name-calling, my initial post was trying to get him to understand in a subtle way that all he's doing in this scenario is -ev hedging..

instead he responded by calling me stupid and insinuates that i add no value..

so i added some value: parlaying -241 leg w/ another -241 leg, and then buying back the last leg at +230 is not all that good of a idea.. no matter how much you masquerade about it..