Contender (Boxing) - Forbes vs. Brewer

[Post-Oak]

I really like Brewer at +240.

Forbes was the favorite coming into the tournament, due to his being a former (paper) champion. This (thoroughly paper) championship was won at the 130 pound limit though. He didn't beat an actual reigning champion, but won the vacant title by beating a journeyman who had 7 losses on his record.

Tonight's fight will be 10 rounds (a huge difference from the show's 5 round bouts), and the weight limit was set at 150 lbs.

Brewer normally fights at Junior Middleweight (154 lbs) and should have a significant size advantage.

Brewer's career:
http://www.boxrec.com/boxer_display.php?boxer_id=044367

Forbe's career:
http://www.boxrec.com/boxer_display.php?boxer_id=014432

Forbes is 32-3 with 9 KOs. He had no power at 130, so of course he can't hurt Brewer.

Brewer is 21-11 with 12 KOs. The 11 losses is eye popping, but you have to understand what kind of fighter Brewer was. Basically, he was a guy who had a full time job who was brought in as the "opponent" for rising stars. Many times he was brought in on short notice.

Some of the names he has lost to: Kelly Pavlik, Peter Manfredo Jr., Jermain Taylor, Carlos Bojorquez, Jose Zertuche, Sechew Powell and Marco Antonio Rubio. Boxing fans know these guys. They range from finge contenders to an undisputed world champion.

It is worth noting that his loss to Powell was a SD in which he knocked Sechew down. It is also worth noting that he has derailed the careers of a couple of prospects he was brought in to be the journeyman "opponent" for. For example, he knocked out very highly touted Anthony Thompson.

Brewer is much bigger, physically stronger, hits harder, and has a superior reach. Forbes is smarter, stays busier, and technically superior (especially defensively).

It's not that I can't see the smaller guy outworking/out slicking Brewer. I definitely can. It's just that I don't see how Brewer can go off at anything higher than +150 or so.

Forbes should only be a slight favorite here.

[NajdorfDefense]

I like your reasoning, but many boxing experts I've listened to in the NE really like Forbes, fwiw. People who've watched him in Golden Gloves and whatnot, pro commentators.

Your point about 10 rounds is very interesting. Hmmmm.

[lowpockets]

The people I know that are in the boxing community and bet really like Forbes here. I am going to make a play based solely on their knowledge of the game and past record.

[rush66]

From what I have seen. Look for Forbes to come out slow in the first round as he always does and everyone to say wow, brewer might have him. Then he will get stronger as the rounds go on. I have only seen his 3 round fights but he has looked better in the 3rd round than anyone else. He knows how to win fights and knows how to train as shown by is record. You stating that brewer worked during his career makes it seem like his training my not be as good as Forbes. Because of that I will take the man that I think works harder.

[Tuds75]

I dont really know anything about these fighters and didn't watch the Contender series (I can't stand editted fights), but I heard the ESPN boxing crew and they all agreed that Steve Forbes that the best fighter on the show. And not only did they think he was the best of the show, but he was a class above most of the other fighters.

But then again they all said the same thing about Peter Manfredo Jr. last year and he ended up losing in the finals.

Take it for what it is worth, but I don't trust betting on these type of cards after watching Anthony Bostane being robbed against Jessie Brinkley and Sergio Mora winning his fight on the same card against Manfredo when I thought he lost the fight. I trust ESPN's Tuesday/Wednesday/Friday night boxing, but these boxing special events really make me leary.

Bet at your own risk, but there is a much better bet coming up on Oct 7th.

Tuds

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
You stating that brewer worked during his career makes it seem like his training my not be as good as Forbes. Because of that I will take the man that I think works harder.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I am assuming that Brewer took some kind of leave from work in order to train. The winner of this fight gets $500K, and the loser gets $75K. Also, judging from the first season of contender, even the loser will get some decent paydays in the months ahead.

So you can look at it like Brewer will have his best training camp ever. Of course, he is 35 or 36 years old and has already been knocked out multiple times, so I am not gonna claim he is in his best condition ever.

[Post-Oak]

Tue 9/26 Total Rounds (Forbes vs Brewer)

07:00 PM 103 Over 9.5 rounds -261
104 Under 9.5 rounds +241

Tue 9/26 Will Steve Forbes win by K.O., T.K.O. or D.Q?

07:00 PM 105 Yes +552
106 No -612

Tue 9/26 Will Steve Forbes win by Decision?

07:00 PM 107 Yes -133
108 No +123

Tue 9/26 Will Grady Brewer win by K.O., T.K.O. or D.Q?

07:00 PM 109 Yes +630
110 No -700


Tue 9/26 Will Grady Brewer win by Decision?

07:00 PM 111 Yes +460
112 No -510

Tue 9/26 Will the fight be a Draw ? (Forbes vs Brewer)

07:00 PM 113 Yes +1650
114 No -1950


If you like Forbes to win (and most of you obviously do), then I would recomend taking him to win by decision at -133 rather than take him at his normal price of -260. Even though I like Brewer at +240, I don't see taking Forbes by Dec at -133 as a bad bet. I think that the fight will be close, and that Forbes will probably win a decision. I just think +240 is really good value on Brewer.

And I don't see any real chance of Forbes knocking Brewer out, which is why I bombed that prop (Forbes not to win by KO, TKO or DQ) at -600.

[rush66]

Thanks a lot. Post-Oak, I agree it ends in decision too.

[PropPlayer]

Nice pick Post-Oak I wish I had read this earlier. My friend convinced me to take Forbes here and I did solely on his advice, I was looking for a reason not to and then watching the stuff leading up to it everyone seemed confident Forbes would win so I felt okay about it, but had been looking for a reason not to.
Congrats on the win.

[ThaHero]

OP- nice pick. Woulda posted my amateur analysis like I do on most boxing matches but my internet is all screwed up.