WSOP ME Field Bet

[Post-Oak]

WSEX now has an option to bet the field for the WSOP Main Event at -600.

They list 310 players (pros with a few celebrities mixed in).

I think this line should be between -1500 and -1000, so I see some value in this bet.

Also, they have a field bet for the HORSE tourney which pays +250. They list 58 people, some of whom may not play. From what I have heard, somewhere between 120 to 200 people should be joining this tourney. I think there is value in taking the field at this price.

I realize that many people will disagree with the value of the ME field bet, but I don't see how anyone can question the value in the HORSE field bet. Unless someone expects 120 entrants to be an exaggeration?

Comments?

[youtalkfunny]

I think a no-name is much more likely to win the ME than the HORSE.

But what do I know?

[dlorc]

ME bet is horrible, the HORSE bet..depends on the player list.
If its got Phil Ivey, DN and David Benyamine on it I'd take it.

I've heard 150-250 being thrown around on entry figures.

[Thremp]

Field bets are usually very good.

I would take my chance easily with the field bet on both without seeing either player list really.

1) Tourney NLHE is very luck heavy. Getting you stack in as a 80/20 favorite still ends up blowing sometimes (Raymer in 05 and whoever that black chick was that sucked out over and over and over.

2) Most "pros" are very one game specialized. Phil Hellmuth blows at most HORSE events. Todd Brunson who could be another entrant is a LHE HU specialist. Ivey's a bad bad man and there are some other guys who're pretty nasty with a good overall feel. I think some of the older players and those in the Big Game have a decided advantage. Or those that play any UB game Phil H. is in.

Why would DN be very competetive at HORSE? One of his very best games isn't even on the list...

[dlorc]

Gee I dont know maybe his background in limit holdem and omaha/o8 as well as playing both stud variants in the big game.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Gee I dont know maybe his background in limit holdem and omaha/o8 as well as playing both stud variants in the big game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad they don't play Omaha and there are 3 stud variants. I'd think it'd be very intersting to look at the bets and see what they are. I don't think they would be very accurate at all. I think that the odds of a Erik Sagstrom or other internet player with a very well rounded game stepping and winning especially a tourney happens more often than not. Like the ME with huge huge fields.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a no-name is much more likely to win the ME than the HORSE.

But what do I know?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is obvious.

Have you taken into consideration the following:

1. the HORSE "field" pays 5 to 2, while the ME "field" pays 1 to 6

2. the HORSE list consists of 58 players, while the ME list consists of 310 players

In other words, we all know that a no name is more likely to win the ME. That doesn't necessarily mean that the ME field is a better bet than the HORSE field.

Do you have any opinions as to the EV (positive or negative) for each of these bets?

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
ME bet is horrible, the HORSE bet..depends on the player list.
If its got Phil Ivey, DN and David Benyamine on it I'd take it.

I've heard 150-250 being thrown around on entry figures.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the HORSE list:


PHIL IVEY 16-1
JENNIFER HARMAN 20-1
BARRY GREENSTEIN 20-1
DOYLE BRUNSON 20-1
DANIEL NEGREANU 22-1
DAVID BENJAMIN 24-1
TED FORREST 24-1
CHIP REESE 24-1
CHRIS FERGUSON 28-1
ERIC LINDGREN 28-1
JOHNNY CHAN 30-1
JOHN JUANDA 30-1
TODD BRUNSON 30-1
CHAU GIANG 30-1
ERIK SEIDEL 30-1
ALLEN CUNNINGHAM 33-1
MIKE MATUSAW 33-1
HOWARD LEDERER 35-1
JEFFREY LISANDRO 35-1
MINH LY 35-1
ELI ELEZRA 40-1
TUAN LE 40-1
MEN NGUYEN 45-1
GUS HANSEN 45-1
SHAHRAM SHEIKHAN 45-1
MICHAEL MIZRACHI 50-1
PATRIK ANTONIUS 50-1
SCOTTY NGUYEN 50-1
PHIL HELLMUTH 50-1
MAX PESCATORI 50-1
MIMI TRAN 50-1
SCOTT FISCHMAN 50-1
LEE SALEM 50-1
MARCEL LUSKE 50-1
AMIR VAHEDI 55-1
BILLY GAZES 55-1
ROBERT WILLIAMSON III 55-1
MICHAEL MIZRACHI 55-1
CARLOS MORTENSEN 55-1
DAVID WILLIAMS 55-1
HARRY DEMETRIOU 55-1
ANDREW BLOCH 55-1
MIKE CARO 55-1
ANNIE DUKE 55-1
DAVID GREY 55-1
T.J. CLOUTIER 60-1
HUCK SEED 60-1
PHIL GORDON 60-1
CHAD BROWN 60-1
JAMES VAN ALSTYNE 66-1
DAVE "DEVILFISH" ULLIOT 66-1
MARK SEIF 66-1
STEVE ZOLOTOW 66-1
ALLEN KESSLER 66-1
MIKE SEXTON 80-1
BARRY SHULMAN 80-1
FREDDY DEEB 80-1
DAVID SKLANSKY 80-1
FIELD (ALL OTHERS) 5-2

Keep in mind that some of the listed players may not even play.

If we take your assumption that 150-200 entrants are likely, then I love the field bet at 5 to 2 (+250).

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Field bets are usually very good.

I would take my chance easily with the field bet on both without seeing either player list really.

1) Tourney NLHE is very luck heavy. Getting you stack in as a 80/20 favorite still ends up blowing sometimes (Raymer in 05 and whoever that black chick was that sucked out over and over and over.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is the way I look at it also.

It is true that the WSOP starts off with 200 BBs and 100 minute levels, but there is still a huge amount of luck involved in this tournament.

As for the HORSE, I can't see how taking 2/3 to 3/4 of the players at +250 can be negative EV. They are giving you most of the players, AND you get 5 to 2 odds.

Of course, people who have the assumption that certain pros have massive edges in either of these tournamants could (and do) disagree.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
ME bet is horrible,

[/ QUOTE ]

How can this possibly be horrible? It might not have much value, but in a highly luck based format taking 6200 players against 300 at -600 cannot be horrible.