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#31
11-28-2006, 01:28 PM
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Re: Bad Beat in Chess?
[ QUOTE ]
This may be one reason your bet could have been -ev. Humans make mistakes, computers don't [/ QUOTE ] If an announcement was made tomorrow that they were starting over with a 6 game match, their is no way Pinnacle would hang the same 0.5 +226 line. Like I said earlier, based upon the first two games, there is no way to conclude that the line was -EV. Now you can say, wait Kramnik is down 1.5-0.5 due to a human error, but the nature of the error is so absurd that it should "never" happen. This probably a one in a million mistake, and errors of this nature shouldn't really play any role in the handicapping of the event. Errors of a different nature are definitely a factor. One of the many rules which are meant to benefit Kramnik is that if the computer sees a draw, his team must offer a draw to Kramnik. His team can not force Kramnik to play on in the endgame, hoping he screws something up (which the computer of course won't do). Also, the computer was only allowed a 5 piece end game table base. In other words, it is already clear that no human being can beat a computer in chess, and rules were initiated to mitigate the human mistake factor. But no one could have foreseen this type of blunder. IMO, I am now convinced the bet was +EV (although when I placed it I was not sure). My only question now is whether Kramnik can win a game as white, and I think the answer is no. Kramnik gets 500K Euros just for participating in the match and an extra 500K if he wins the match outright, but I think at this point he would be very happy with salvaging a draw. 
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#32
11-28-2006, 05:13 PM
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Re: Bad Beat in Chess?
[ QUOTE ]
Kramnik gets 500K Euros just for participating in the match and an extra 500K if he wins the match outright, but I think at this point he would be very happy with salvaging a draw. [/ QUOTE ] He has no financial incentive to draw the match?
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#33
11-28-2006, 06:14 PM
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Re: Bad Beat in Chess?
[ QUOTE ]
He has no financial incentive to draw the match? [/ QUOTE ] No, he only gets more if he wins outright. That was the only rule which worried me a bit; the thought that he would be taking risks in order to snag a win, rather than go for a draw. That hasn't really seemed to happen though, considering he was white in the first game and supposedly played in a way in which he had no chance to lose, with a slight chance to win. I'm not equipped to analyze a high level chess game, but the analysis of the experts was that he played in such a manner. Oh, they are actually paying him in USD, not Euros.
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#35
11-28-2006, 11:44 PM
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Re: Bad Beat in Chess?
[ QUOTE ]
that is an odd blunder for sure. he just said, "can't find an explanation". really weird. [/ QUOTE ] It's not really *that* odd, guys, c'mon. Even Bobby Fischer once tried to play...h6 before realizing it led to mate on G7 so he was forced to play ...h5, losing shortly thereafter in the early-midgame with zero time pressure. This from possibly the best and most accurate player in history. It happens to every GM. This was Kramnik's turn, is all.
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#36
11-29-2006, 01:45 AM
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Re: Bad Beat in Chess?
Hi,
If Kramnik is allowed to go to the bathroom in this match, this is a great bet. Deep fritz 10 will get at least a draw playing against itself over 6 games some huge percentage of the time. Getting +226 it is a no-brainer.
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#37
11-29-2006, 03:37 AM
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Re: Bad Beat in Chess?
Your bet is still good. In both of the first two games, Kramnik was in very good to winning shape, despite the bizarre blunder in game 2. I think Kramnik is still very good money to win the match outright.
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#38
11-29-2006, 05:05 AM
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Re: Bad Beat in Chess?
Chess players can be pretty weird to begin with. Seeing the most amazing combinations one minute, then staring at a board like they had never seen one before the next.
Such concentration and I think some weird self-hypnotizing or something takes place for some of the space-outs for these odd blunders. I mean, Fischer obviously is an odd dude. And I think it was Bronstein who once took 45 minutes to make his FIRST freaking move of a match. I think that some of these guys have some periods of legit nuttyness.
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#39
11-29-2006, 11:25 AM
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Re: Bad Beat in Chess?
[ QUOTE ]
Chess players can be pretty weird to begin with. Seeing the most amazing combinations one minute, then staring at a board like they had never seen one before the next. Such concentration and I think some weird self-hypnotizing or something takes place for some of the space-outs for these odd blunders. I mean, Fischer obviously is an odd dude. And I think it was Bronstein who once took 45 minutes to make his FIRST freaking move of a match. I think that some of these guys have some periods of legit nuttyness. [/ QUOTE ] No kidding. Go to any major USCF event and you'll quickly see that there are odd people at every skill level. It's quite a scene man...
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