5/10 Live (Borgata) against LAG

[Post-Oak]

Villain has just recently sat at the table. Although he is clearly a new player (and not from another table), he has been allowed to sit with over $3K (max is supposed to be $1,500). This is undoubtedly because he is a regular, which is how they roll at the Borgata. They pretended he had come from another table (which I happen to know he did not). This didn't bother me, as I don't like cappped buy ins anyway, but this is why Villain has me covered although he has just recently sat down. Also, I like to rant about how the regulars get special treatment at the Borg (and pretty much every other card room).

I have $2600 and villain covers.

From what people have been saying since villain sat, he is a LAG.

He gets involved in some decent pots right away. He wins one after betting the river when a possible flush card hits. His opponent folds, and Villain jokes that he would have went all-in if he missed his flush, but that when he hits it he value bets. A couple of regulars are laughing and are discussing how this is true.

This seems like a highly exploitable strategy to me, and I am not sure if it can possibly be true.

I am viewed as very tight. I haven't played a hand since Villain has sat.

I make it $40 to go from UTG+1 with T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain calls on the button, and all others fold.

Flop (2 players, $95):

3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I lead for $75. He makes it $325. I call. I am thinking that he has me squarely on an overpair.

Turn (2 players, $745):

T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check. He bets $600. I have $2235 left.

I am thinking of check raising all-in.

Instead, I just call. I am sure he has me on a high overpair. The plan is to check any river to him. If I hit (not just the flush, but two pair or trips) I am definitely hoping he bets big.

River (2 players, $1945)

8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I have $1635 left.

I check. He quickly announces all-in.

I go into the tank. I think there is a good possibility my pair is good here. The way he and the others described his play, he bombs the river when he misses.

Still, can he really have such an exploitable strategy? And if he did, why would he tell everyone and then immediately follow through on it?

Plus, this river push is not an overbet. $1635 (all of my chips) is not even a full pot sized bet. So this could very well just be a value bet. It is possible he was semi-bluffing but has now made a hand which beats one pair and he is sure I have an overpair.

He's shown agression on every street, so obviously I can only beat a bluff here. I think about what he has me on, and I know he thinks I have AA or KK. The thing is, can he expect an unknown to fold AA? I usually don't bluff unknowns. Of course, all of my reasoning can be wrong because I simply don't think like a LAG!

Call or fold here?

Also, I would like comments on my turn play, because I don't like it (given my view of the Villain).

[Bill King]

i think you were beat here the entire time, and the turn is just giving you a reason to call.. talking yourself into it. if he's a regular and hes not retarded (assuming) you can be sure he has top pair beat here. theres no way he puts you on a FD seeing as how you're an unknown and thats too small of a range to put you on and then shove a blank river.

most guys who play strictly live, dont over aggressively 3-bet pairs like JJ-QQ or an underpair that might have made a set.

i think this is a pretty standard fold.

[highhustla]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sure he has me on a high overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your logic is contradictory. If this is your read, consider the possible scenarios:

1) Villain can beat an overpair and is valuebetting every street. Given the board texture he could be vbetting 2pair, set, or straight, and any hand combo that would make any of these is in his range.
2) Villain is trying to bluff you off an overpair

Assigning a probability to #2 is up to your read, but if you really think that's his most likely course of action, shouldn't you be folding JT UTG w/ this guy behind you? I don't like the flop call either way, either. You're just not getting a good enough price OOP when you know you are probably facing another barrel on the turn.

You asked for comments on your turn play. I think the turn is the least misplayed street here.

The confusion he caused you is why LAGs bang the hottest chicks. It doesn't seem like you even tried to assign him a hand range? Your river logic sounds to me like "I know I should fold this, but I have top pair against a LAG who said he likes to bluff and I'm getting 2:1!" For the river decision you also have to add in the possibility that he was bluffing with 1pr or a draw that couldn't beat an overpair on the flop, but now he can.

River should be a fold but I don't like the logic that got you there.

Besides the fact that calling w/ the bottom of your range vs. a villain whom you have not assigned a range to seems like really really really bad policy.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Your logic is contradictory. If this is your read, consider the possible scenarios:

1) Villain can beat an overpair and is valuebetting every street. Given the board texture he could be vbetting 2pair, set, or straight, and any hand combo that would make any of these is in his range.
2) Villain is trying to bluff you off an overpair

Assigning a probability to #2 is up to your read,


[/ QUOTE ]

So far I agree with all you have said, with the exception of "your logic is contradictory". More on that below...

[ QUOTE ]

but if you really think that's his most likely course of action, shouldn't you be folding JT UTG w/ this guy behind you?


[/ QUOTE ]

Normally I do fold JT UTG+1. That is the standard play. Making it 40 with JTs from EP was a non-standard play. I don't think there is any value in critizing this play, unless you believe that hands must always rigidly be played in a certain way. So while I agree that JTs "should be" folded, this was just a case of mixing it up.

I also don't understand why you think having this opponent behind me is the determining factor of what hands I should fold. There are 10 people at the table. I'm not putting all of my focus on one guy who is sitting several seats away.

Furthermore, as you pointed out already, his hand range is very wide here considering his LAG tendencies, and the fact that he thinks I have an overpair. This makes playign JTs against him MORE attractive, not less attractive. For example, take this specific hand. He is not going to think a T or a J is going to help my hand (unless the T counterfeits his two pair). He also does not think I am likely to be on a flush draw. And we are just talking about this specific hand. I would rather have JTs against this player than against a player who is likely to have a set when he gives me heavy action.

I don't think it is possible for you to say raising with JTs was "wrong" here, because it was a change of pace. I had not really played any hands in a while, and almost always fold JTs there.

[ QUOTE ]

I don't like the flop call either way, either. You're just not getting a good enough price OOP when you know you are probably facing another barrel on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Stacks are pretty deep, and I feel that I am getting a good enough price. Also, there is the chance he checks behind on the turn and I get a free card. I wasn't sure I was facing another barrel on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]

You asked for comments on your turn play. I think the turn is the least misplayed street here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not surprisingly, we are not in agreement.

[ QUOTE ]

The confusion he caused you is why LAGs bang the hottest chicks. It doesn't seem like you even tried to assign him a hand range? Your river logic sounds to me like "I know I should fold this, but I have top pair against a LAG who said he likes to bluff and I'm getting 2:1!" For the river decision you also have to add in the possibility that he was bluffing with 1pr or a draw that couldn't beat an overpair on the flop, but now he can.


[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read my whole post? It seriously seems as if you have not. So far, you have reiterated a lot of what I have already said. For example, your points numbered 1 and 2 from the first quote. And now this last part from the above quote - where you say he may have been semi-bluffing but can now beat one pair. I already pointed all of this out in the original post.

You seem a lot more confused than I ever was.

And who said I didn't attempt to assign him a range? I didn't list every possible hand because the range is so wide. He could be semi-bluffing, or he could have a set. He could have air. Why would you want me to start naming specific hands?

I already said that it is obvious I can only beat a bluff.

[ QUOTE ]

River should be a fold but I don't like the logic that got you there.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with you that I should have folded the flop. You seem to agree with my turn play, but it is on the turn where I can say I agree with you that I don't like how I got to this spot on the river.

[ QUOTE ]

Besides the fact that calling w/ the bottom of your range vs. a villain whom you have not assigned a range to seems like really really really bad policy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am still at a loss why you want me to list a hand range here. His range is vast. That is the whole point.

I was really thinking that there is a pretty good chance that I was good here. The whole question was whether the chance was big enough where I was getting good pot odds.

I know you understand this last point (because I read your post), and that you think the chance is not large enough to justify a call. I can understand why you feel this way, but I don't really agree with any other part of your post (except where you are reiterating what I already said).

[highhustla]

[ QUOTE ]
So while I agree that JTs "should be" folded, this was just a case of mixing it up.
. . .
I also don't understand why you think having this opponent behind me is the determining factor of what hands I should fold. There are 10 people at the table. I'm not putting all of my focus on one guy who is sitting several seats away.

Furthermore, as you pointed out already, his hand range is very wide here considering his LAG tendencies, and the fact that he thinks I have an overpair. This makes playign JTs against him MORE attractive, not less attractive. For example, take this specific hand. He is not going to think a T or a J is going to help my hand (unless the T counterfeits his two pair). He also does not think I am likely to be on a flush draw. And we are just talking about this specific hand. I would rather have JTs against this player than against a player who is likely to have a set when he gives me heavy action.

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO all of this is true when you have position on him. But when he has position on you, JTs has reverse implied odds written all over it.

[ QUOTE ]


I don't think it is possible for you to say raising with JTs was "wrong" here, because it was a change of pace. I had not really played any hands in a while, and almost always fold JTs there.

[/ QUOTE ]
fair
[ QUOTE ]

I know you understand this last point (because I read your post), and that you think the chance is not large enough to justify a call. I can understand why you feel this way, but I don't really agree with any other part of your post (except where you are reiterating what I already said).

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Everything in your OP that I repeated seems to point to an obvious fold.

[Post-Oak]

Sorry I didn't get back to this sooner.


After thinking, I finally decided to fold. My thinking was
a. would he really be bluffing here after claiming that he always pushes with missed draws just minutes earlier?

b. would he really be trying to run an unknown off of a hand like AA

c. if I was thinking of calling here with this marginal hand, why the hell didn't I C/R all-in on the turn? At least then I would have outs if he had one pair beat.

After thinking for a while, I mucked face up. He showed 3d 6d, for a pretty big draw (which missed).


I think I misplayed this hand against this player. Not because I folded the river, but because I should have C/R all-in on the turn.