Do I fold here? Plo50 6max

Pg9 · #1 10-20-2007, 09:49 AM

Villain is 44/5/3 but I have only 40 hands on him.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($69.15)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($46.10)
UTG ($50)
MP ($54.55)
CO ($18.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG (poster) checks, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.4, UTG folds, MP calls $2.40, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($7.30) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP raises to $15.95, Hero [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Final Pot: $13.30

Pg9 · #2 10-20-2007, 01:51 PM

Ah, uhm, nevermind.
He looks solid. Since I'm in BB he must know, that I might have a straight myself or at least a set. Since he is reraising I guess he has the nut straight possibly with a flush redraw.
Good fold.

chucky · #3 10-20-2007, 01:59 PM

One bit of advice. On the turn either bet hard or dont bet at all. 3 dollar bets into 7 dollar pots will induce raises from good players who sense weakness.

Pg9 · #4 10-20-2007, 02:17 PM

Oh, ok thanks. I will try to pay attention to that.
So there is a chance that he (semi) bluffed me out of the pot.
I guess I won't know for sure until I play more with him.
Thanks again.

donkeykong2 · #5 10-20-2007, 03:30 PM

its 12 to call into a 40 dollar pot (after the call), i d call for sure.

edited..

chucky · #6 10-20-2007, 03:47 PM

A) Its a 13 dollar call, well $12.95.
B) its a 13 dollar call on a pot of 26 dollars. Hero is not winning 33% of the time unless his flush draw is good. If his flush draw is not good, hero is likely to lose the rest of his stack.

donkeykong2 · #7 10-20-2007, 03:58 PM

we have 9 outs if the flush draw is not good, thats 20% already unless opponents has kkxx. we have 8 additional outs if the flush draw is good, 17 if it is good 37% or something, if villain has a (semi)bluff here ever i think we have to call. we might have 3 outs for a split pot too.

Pg9 · #8 10-20-2007, 04:06 PM

You're right. edit: you'd be if pot would be 40$ [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

if he only has the straight:
board: 6s3hKh5s
Ac6d6h2h 42.50%
8s7d4c5h 57.50%

if he has the heart redraw:

board: 6s3hKh5s
Ac6d6h2h 22.50%
8h7d4s5h 77.50%

Pg9 · #9 10-20-2007, 04:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A) If his flush draw is not good, hero is likely to lose the rest of his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I was afraid of the higher flush.
Let's say I call. What are my options on the river?

A. I fill up. I think in that case the pot is mine, but I don't think he would pay off a PSB...
B. The river is a blank. I c/f.
C. The river is spade. Well, I guess I c/f.
D. The river is a heart. I bet out and fold for a raise [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

All in all it looks that I should probably c/f or bet properly and fold much easier if reraised...
I'm I right here?

chucky · #10 10-20-2007, 04:59 PM

The problem is that even if 1/3 the time your opponent makes this move with bare straight (Which I think is too high). hero has 18.5/40 equity or 47% equity. The remaining 2/3 hero has 10/40 or 25% equity. 1/3*.47 = .16+ (2/3*.25)= .32 which is not enough to call. Given that hero would have to call all non board pairing flushes and villian would fold when board pairs, reverse implied odds are in effect.