10NL - ATs in min 3b pot

[Gospy]

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $10
UTG: $19.90
MP: $16.60
Hero (CO): $16.55
BTN: $17.20
SB: $10.20

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.35</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $0.70</font>, Hero calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.45) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1.20</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, BB calls $2.30

Turn: ($8.45) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $5.80 and is All-In</font>, Hero ???

This guy was 24/9/2.33 over about 50 hands. The turn gives me outs to my flush and I already have tptk, so I feel like I have enough equity to make this a profitable call. I have to call ~$6 to win ~$14, so &gt;2:1. So, what do you guys think?

[vrV.]

The turn is a Q, so you don't have TPTK nmore. I think your pair is no good here and you will only win the pot rivering your flush. Since you have to win ~29% to make it to null EV and you are hitting your flush ~18%, I'm folding here.

[Gospy]

You are right about the queen, but I would argue that it probably didn't change much other than giving me the flush draw or if he had AQ.

There are still possibly tens and aces as outs as well. I don't know if just a heart will win the pot.

[Tito]

I think I prefer a smooth call and the flop and then reevaluate the turn. Given his push and average AF I think you gotta fold here. I don't like his minraise oop preflop either. That's always AA,KK in my experience.

33,660 games 0.005 secs 6,732,000 games/sec

Board: 8c 7h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.698% 25.65% 01.05% 8634 352.50 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 73.302% 72.25% 01.05% 24321 352.50 { 77+ }

Pokerstove says it's a fold.

[Gospy]

Given his 9% pfr, his 3b range must be pretty tight. Even if I loosen that up, I don't think I'm in too bad of shape.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,156 games 0.005 secs 431,200 games/sec

Board: 8c 7h Ts Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.959% 47.96% 00.00% 1034 0.00 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 52.041% 52.04% 00.00% 1122 0.00 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }

If I then reason by saying pocket pairs he most likely has include 99-AA. Obviously less weight on TT or AA,but still. AK is possible, but unlikely. So I narrow it to AQ, 99+. I'm still 36%, and I am in good shape against just the pocket pairs.

The main question is what hand does he just flat call the flop and shove with on the turn. It seems to me like a made hand but a hand afraid of draws.

[Gospy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I prefer a smooth call and the flop and then reevaluate the turn. Given his push and average AF I think you gotta fold here. I don't like his minraise oop preflop either. That's always AA,KK in my experience.

33,660 games 0.005 secs 6,732,000 games/sec

Board: 8c 7h Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.698% 25.65% 01.05% 8634 352.50 { AhTh }
Hand 1: 73.302% 72.25% 01.05% 24321 352.50 { 77+ }

Pokerstove says it's a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

He shoved the turn not flop. Also, if I know he has KK, this is a neutral call as I will be ~30%.

[Profish2285]

I would prefer flat calling the flop as well. I dont think a raise accomplishes anything except folding out AK. I highly doubt he is folding an overpair to your raise, so Im unsure why you did it. And he will more likely than not have an overpair due to his min 3 bet. Is it a bluff or for value? I honestly think you turned your tptk into a bluff here. I would probably flat call his turn bet also if I flatted the flop, assuming of course his bet is reasonable. The reason for this is two fold. First off, again as I stated before, you more than likely are not getting your money in good if all the chips go in the middle on the flop or turn. Secondly, if you hit your bdfd, he will more than likely not give you credit and pay you off. Again though, this is all really dependent on if his turn bet is even reasonable.

[Gospy]

Ok, that makes sense, I usually just always 3b when I'm lead into when I have tptk. In this case I would want to get him to fold AK I thought. Another relevant stat I could have mentioned was he cbet 80% of the time. After he calls is where I'm mostly lost, I feel like I'm committed, but in retrospect I guess I should have folded.

[Tito]

I think you can throw out AQo and below because I doubt he 3-bets any of those preflop. Suited maybe. You need to include 77 in your range. The Q didn't scare him at all, if anything it helped him so you can keep AQs and KQs. If you do it that way you might squeeze out a call but I think it's too marginal to be +EV. If he does have a set he could still fill up. I don't think it's a terrible call but I would need a read.

Edit: Just saw last post. AK is the primary hand you do not want him to fold. He hits his ace and pushes and it's money.