How much would a perfect seat in the ME be worth?

[mugatu668]

Let's say main event 2008 is rolling around, and first place is going to walk away with $8 million dollars. Phil Ivey is walking down the street when a man says to him, "I have sunglasses that will show you your opponents cards in every hand you play." How much should Phil Ivey pay for those sunglasses?

Things to consider:
1) The main event has a very deep structure. What kind of all-ins could Phil Ivey avoid 100 + bb's deep in a tournament? With a 20% chance of being knocked out, would he fold AA vs KK?
2) How would Ivey's game plan change? Would he try to pick up a lot of smaller pots when nobody had anything?
3) How easily can Ivey expect to reach the final table?

[ApeAttack]

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Let's say main event 2008 is rolling around, and first place is going to walk away with $8 million dollars. Phil Ivey is walking down the street when a man says to him, "I have sunglasses that will show you your opponents cards in every hand you play." How much should Phil Ivey pay for those sunglasses?

Things to consider:
1) The main event has a very deep structure. What kind of all-ins could Phil Ivey avoid 100 + bb's deep in a tournament? With a 20% chance of being knocked out, would he fold AA vs KK?
2) How would Ivey's game plan change? Would he try to pick up a lot of smaller pots when nobody had anything?
3) How easily can Ivey expect to reach the final table?

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~$7.5 million for it to be neutral EV? (This is not considering endorsement deals, which could make him millions more)

The only risk is in the early stages before he is the dominant chip leader.
He should avoid going all-in (risking elimination from the tournament) if he isn't a 95% favorite. There is no need for this at all!

After he becomes the dominant chip leader during day 1 he'll never be at risk of being overtaken. He wouldn't care if there was a 20% chance of losing a hand because it would represent a small percent of his chips.

[rndr21]

You will never have to go all in before all cards are dealt, plenty of time to pick spots. They would be worth 16 Million because the endorsement deals would be through the roof and I think that FTP would match what he made.

Of course you would have to be unethical in order to consider this...

[Dangeresque]

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You will never have to go all in before all cards are dealt, plenty of time to pick spots. They would be worth 16 Million because the endorsement deals would be through the roof and I think that FTP would match what he made.

Of course you would have to be unethical in order to consider this...

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Hmm... okay, how much are they worth to Dutch Boyd then?

[bluffcakes]

They would be worth about 99.99% of the value of first place in the main event (including deals etc). It would be almost impossible not to come first

[Hansundfranz]

What if all the other players know that ivey has those glasses and agree that 2/3rds of the price money are shared between all players that are involved in the hand where Ivey gets busted?

What would be the ideal strategy?
If all players in front of ivey limp and as soon as ivey has some money in the pot (also when he´s in the blinds) all players will push all in?

Then the best he could hope for is pocket aces vs 9 others random hands which should give him a chance of 70% to bust out.

With a main even field of 5000 players he needs to win 3 such hands to get 10*10*10 = 1/5th of all the chips and another all in confrontation against 4 random hands to win it all.

So that means he has at best a chance of
0.3*0.3*0.3*0.55 = 1,5% to win.

In real he probbaly has to win even more such confrontations because pocket aces don´t come along that often and he loose the blinds quite often.

This calculation of course assumes that all others work together in eleminationg ivey.

[alexruimy]

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eleminationg

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[qpw]

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eleminationg

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It is generally considered bad manners (and a complete waste of time) to point out tpyos and spelling errors unless they are particularly amusing for some reason.

Have I missed a joke here?

[cynic757]

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typos and spelling errors unless they are particularly amusing for some reason.

Have I missed a joke here?

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FYP

That one WAS amusing to me.

While we're on the subject, using "loose" instead of "lose" drives me freakin insane.

[btmagnetw]

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eleminationg

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