Clearplay bonuses strategy

[Jim14Qc]

Hey, I'm going through the "Beating Bonuses" list (so far I've done 4 I think) and it seems like there's a lot of clearplay bonuses.

So far, the advice given by the website is to bet the full bankroll on baccarat and then take the winnings to roulette to clear the requirements (if it's in T&C, otherwise cashout). The ones I've done so far are 400% bonuses on a $50 bonus.

Am I wrong in thinking that betting $200 instead of $250 reduces my chances of loss? That way if I lose $200 in my first hand, I can then proceed to bet the last $50 (bonus money, can't cashout) and if I win I have $50 cash and $50 bonus. I then bet $50 or cashout. If I bet, I either win or re-do the same thing.

That way, I have a risk of loss of around 25% (a bit higher than that but w/e) since I have ~50% chance of winning (I play dealer, not player) on my first hand and if I lose I have another 50% chance to make my money back.

Any thoughts? Am I wrong?

[ImsaKidd]

Uhm, I think betting player on bacc is better than dealer.

And just bet your whole roll first hand. Your math is flawed.

And they're more +EV if you go to 3 or 4x your initial balance. If you can stand the variance.

[Jim14Qc]

[ QUOTE ]
Uhm, I think betting player on bacc is better than dealer.

And just bet your whole roll first hand. Your math is flawed.

And they're more +EV if you go to 3 or 4x your initial balance. If you can stand the variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dealer is better, check wizard [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

For the rest, I understand I should bet my full br (let's say $250 which is common) and bet the winnings (full br now 440$ including ~250 cash, 190 bonus) again for a bet of $440? So I need to win twice, but if I do I now have a roll of around 800$ and can grind it at roulette (lose around 100$) for a win of $650? Seems good, but how much variance can I expect?

So far I've done 3 clearplay's and have a total profit of $630. I finally won a freeplay and will be clearing it tomorrow. It's 60xB (at french roulette) and I have $200 bonus for $50 deposit. Betting $250 baccarat and then the winnings again is my most +EV move?

Thanks!

[ImsaKidd]

Whats your whoring BR? If its low you dont have to triple or quad up.

As long as you are checking wiz then you're good. I thought you "had a feeling" or something.

You dont have to bet your whole roll if your target is lower. Say my target was 800:

Start 250, bet 250, win for 500 balance. Then bet 300, if I lose start betting entire roll again, etc.

Variance will be kind of high. Your chance of not busting is roughly (original balance)/(target balance)

[Jim14Qc]

Original balance was 0 :P I just did a few of those today and doubled (or close to) my gambling BR. I think I'm going to do the next one trying to 4x. We'll see how it goes.

[froggy527]

You might just double up on the bigger bonuses and then
try the 3X or 4X on some of the smaller bonuses. Also be
aware that some of the sites will only let you bet the
amount of you deposit!

[aka23]

The house edge between player in banker is negligible for the purposes of a single big bet. The banker bet has a slight edge in general circumstances. However, I believe that with a Clearplay bonus of >20%, the player bet has a greater expected gain.

If you continue rebetting, until you either win or lose the big bet. There is a 50.7% chance banker will win, and a 49.3% chance player will win. This makes the odds under general circumstances .507*0.95 -.493= -1.2% for the banker bet, and .493-.507= -1.4% for the player bet. So banker is the better choice without a bonus.

If you figure in a 400% clearplay bonus of $200, then the banker bet EV is .507*0.95*$250 -.493*$50 = $95.70. And the player bet EV is .493*$250 -.507*$50 = $97.95.

Note that you can play many games besides baccarat and you can choose many bet sizes besides full-bankroll. Just make high variance bets until you either reach your target gain or bust. The higher the variance, the higher the EV and higher the risk of loss. The more you wager, the more the house edge has an influence.