Cardinals kick field goal instead of going for TD, WTF!!!!

[PITTM]

I actually thought the first time when Miami went for it on 4th and 11 instead of kick the field goal earlier in the game was way way worse. Probably one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make.

[UATrewqaz]

The Kentucky coaches made the exact same mistake this past Saturday against Tennessee.

UK was down 3 and had the ball on about 2 with 18 or so seconds left. THey ran a running play to get to the 1 and then called a timeout. They then threw an incomplete pass and there was like 3 seconds left, enough for 1 play.

So they kicked the field goal to go to OT, where they lost.

As you pointed out, OT will usually be a 50/50 deal (minor edge for the better team and possibly the home team) but surely your odds of scoring a TD from the 1 are far better than 50/50? Stupid.

[AngusThermopyle]

[ QUOTE ]

had the ball on about 2 with 18 or so seconds left. They ran a running play to get to the 1 and then called a timeout. They then threw an incomplete pass and there was like 3 seconds left, enough for 1 play.
... but surely your odds of scoring a TD from the 1 are far better than 50/50? Stupid.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, at that point they were 0-2 from the 2/1 yd lines.

[Billy Bibbit]

MicroBob,

Most people aren't used to thinking about EV the way poker players do. I don't think it ever occurs to most coaches to compare probabilities in the sense of "We win 70% if we go for it and 55% if we attempt a field goal." They just do what other people have told them is best, be it reporters, other coaches, or whoever. When a coach gets ripped apart for getting stuffed on fourth down I'm sure it discourages other coaches from going for it in the future.

[Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually thought the first time when Miami went for it on 4th and 11 instead of kick the field goal earlier in the game was way way worse. Probably one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make.

[/ QUOTE ]

The chance that you miss that field goal and hand Pitt the ball 7 yards closer to a FG of their own > chance of making first down and/or at least handing Pitt the ball at line of scrimage > change of making field goal imo.

[gusmahler]

People on the Cards boards aren't even upset about this. They are upset at the poor clock management. 1:01 left with 1 timeout, and the Cards only get off 3 plays!

They get a first down, and instead of spiking it, they run another play. They gain 9 yards, but again they don't spike it, but run another play again, getting them to the 1 yard line, where they finally call a time out with 6 seconds left (even though there was a high likelihood of there being a booth review on that play). They get another play off, and it was broken up at the goal line, leading to the FG attempt.

[Dudd]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually thought the first time when Miami went for it on 4th and 11 instead of kick the field goal earlier in the game was way way worse. Probably one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wasn't there a penalty for delay of game right before that play, and the kicker drilled the ball right into the defensive line about 5 yards off the ground? Pittsburgh had also came up short and way wide from almost the same exact spot on the field the quarter before, those conditions were horrible for anything other than a chip shot field goal.

[PITTM]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I actually thought the first time when Miami went for it on 4th and 11 instead of kick the field goal earlier in the game was way way worse. Probably one of the worst decisions I have ever seen a coach make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wasn't there a penalty for delay of game right before that play, and the kicker drilled the ball right into the defensive line about 5 yards off the ground? Pittsburgh had also came up short and way wide from almost the same exact spot on the field the quarter before, those conditions were horrible for anything other than a chip shot field goal.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, and the annoucers were talking about what a lucky break it was for the dolphins that they could now kick from one of the few spots where you could easily get your footing instead of in a mud pit. If they decided there was a 10% chance of making that field goal that is still better than going for it imo.

[Punker]

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Their scoring chance for inside the one must be around 70-80%, opposed to the exactly 50% they have in overtime.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually was hoping to refute this point and defend kicking the FG (on the grounds that they might be better than 50% to win in OT, or that they were not 80% to score), but in fact, it's even more grossly in favor of going for it.

On the year, Arizona had started 11 games (similar to the conditions you'd start an OT period) - of those 11, they scored first only 3/11 times. Obviously this stat has variance on coin flip.

On the year, Arizona has been in 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 situations (similar to what they were in on the last play of regulation) 18 times; they successfully convered 16/18 times.

[AngusThermopyle]

Everyone here is forgetting the Curse of the Bidwells.