Daliman's NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux

[Daliman]

Ok, well, there's been more than a few rumblings and exhortations about whether I am going to do Wong Teasers again this year, and the answer is yes. I'd be stupid not to. Let's take a quick look at last year's final stats;

NFL 2006-2007 season Final Totals:
Teased Games: 60-9 (86.96%)
2 Team Teases: 78-25 (75.73%)
3 Team teases: 5-0 (100%)
4 Team Teases: 7-1 (87.5%%)
+21798


Last year, on this very bulletin board, I led many of you on a grand odyssey where not only was there likely more information disseminated on the subject of Wong Teases than ANYWHERE ELSE, ( and most of the good stuff NOT by your truly), but I also posted what, near as I can tell, is the best-ever win % on even-money type bets with over 100 trials, ( I looked around lots, never found better. If you can, please share). I am looking forward to this year wholeheartedly, but in regards to last year;





Fuggheddabboudit.

It's not hapenning again.


Being the "wong Messiah" is fun, don't get me wrong, but last year, I was VERY lucky.


So don;t expect NEAR the same return this year. We could also easily LOSE $$$. These are NOT sure things.

But what they ARE is the simplest, most-straight forward way to make +EV bets you will ever see in your lifetime.

I'm no sports-betting expert. I read a lot, and stood on the shoulders of giants at the teller window, that's all. But I had a great time doing it, and since I have a certain name recognition with these now, I will be more than happy to once again offer up my picks to the consensus.


As it stands, I need to iron out details once again with my book, but he currently only has two true Wong games up. This will likely change as the season goes on. When I get more info, I will post my picks.

Those of you that have questions would do well to look in the FAQ thread at some of my threads from last year, as the information therein is legion and impressive.


HERE'S TO A NEW YEAR OF RELATIVELY MINDLESS +EV BETTING!

[jhennis]

I'm following...

Is going from +3 to +9 considered a wong?

[brendanb438]

Welcome back Dali. Lets have a year that makes last years winnings look like nothing!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


Oh yeah. 5Dimes is the only site I have found offering 1:1 on two teamers. How bad does the 11:10 screw with the EV of these bets?

Almost all the games which are on a 3 are being teased from 2.5 on 5Dimes. Those bastards.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm following...

Is going from +3 to +9 considered a wong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Half wong, and I only do them with extenuating circumstances, ( home team, high neg, etc)

[brendanb438]

Yeah the only 2 true Wongs are the Detroit/Oakland and Baltimore/Cincy game with Pinny lines.

I like the +3 teams of Buffalo and Green Bay a little bit.

Gonna be hard to do these only since most sites have shiatty odds on them this year.

[rsigley]

according to gambling 102 book a 2 team wong teaser at -110 still has a 3.19% player advantage (using data from 1983 to 2004) which is still pretty good

[brendanb438]

Too tired to run the numbers on the value or loss of value from teasing a # from +3 to +9 as opposed to +2.5 to +8.5. Anyone have that info laying around?

Roughly 37% of reg season games are won by 3-7 points and another 4.5% by 8 or 9.

3 pts 16.1%
4 4.7%
5 2.9%
6 5.7%
7 9.8%
8 3.2%
9 1.2%

Those are close rounded estimates for margin of victory.
So I am trying to figure out if teasing all those bad 2.5 lines on 5Dimes at +100 2 team odds is worthwild or not. We don't lose much landing on 8.5 instead of 9.

-Brendan

[veresov]

Why are there only 2 true Wongs? I thought +2.5 for dog is good to tease in a Wong? 5Dimes has a boatload of games where there is a 2.5 dog.

[veresov]

Chiefs
Bills
Packers
Falcons
Dolphins
Cardinals

are all +2.5 - +3.5 dogs which should be Wongable. Is that correct?

[jhennis]

Yeah I'm confused now...Daliman what do you consider a "true" Wong?