Overpair turn puke

tpir · #1 06-22-2006, 01:34 PM

Party 5/10 playing 7-handed. Clown limps UTG, unremarkable MP raises (only hand of note he jammed a draw on the flop {and hit}), folded to me and I 3-bet J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB, BB folds, UTG sponges two, MP calls.

Flop (10 SB): 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I bet, call, call

Turn (5.75 BB): 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet, fold, PFR raises.... *barf*

Pot is pretty big so I can't fold, right?

beaster · #2 06-22-2006, 01:40 PM

This board is pretty raggy. Against an unknown I'm calling it down.

Warren Harding · #3 06-22-2006, 02:26 PM

I don't share your panic. You know villian can play draws aggresively, and there are lots of those, he may think you are FOS striking out with high cards. Call.

tpir · #4 06-22-2006, 02:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't share your panic. You know villian can play draws aggresively, and there are lots of those, he may think you are FOS striking out with high cards. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Duly noted. My panic was born more from him waiting to raise the turn. Most tight-ish people don't do this with draws.

Warren Harding · #5 06-22-2006, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't share your panic. You know villian can play draws aggresively, and there are lots of those, he may think you are FOS striking out with high cards. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Duly noted. My panic was born more from him waiting to raise the turn. Most tight-ish people don't do this with draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

But s/he cannot semibluff you off the flop with those odds.

tsrcess · #6 06-22-2006, 02:55 PM

panic is not exactly the right word. "concerned" is better. fairly good chance you're beat, but, maybe you could see 9,9-10,10 or two high spades raising on the turn...consequently, i think a call is in order....

Fat Nicky · #7 06-22-2006, 02:55 PM

i'm calling this down without 2nd thought. It's entirely possible he waited for a safe turn to raise 99 or TT. He also might be trying to raise you off AK.

James. · #8 06-22-2006, 03:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't share your panic. You know villian can play draws aggresively, and there are lots of those, he may think you are FOS striking out with high cards. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Duly noted. My panic was born more from him waiting to raise the turn. Most tight-ish people don't do this with draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

my concern as well. earlier you said he wanted to jam his draws on the flop, so if he was drawing he would have had perfect position on the flop to raise. he didn't cap preflop so this limits the holdings of the "typical" player at this limit. i think you are ahead of some marginal holdings a good portion of the time that he wanted a safe turn to raise. gassing it will only cause them to fold the worse hands and cap the ones that beat us. i can't decide if i want to call and donk the river to prevent the FSD raise, but i'm NOT folding this turn. also, it should be noted how he may view you, i.e., can you fold/have you folded; even a tight player may pop the turn HU with a big draw if he thinks a player will fold often enough...

W. Deranged · #9 06-22-2006, 04:14 PM

Anyone share my opinion that if we are calling the turn raise, we should probably bet out on the river? Those hands that we are ahead of on the flop are exactly the types of hands that we want to bet into, as they'll almost certainly call a bet but may take a free showdown. I imagine this guy is the type we aren't worried will bluff-raise the river. He's also quite unlikely to give us a free showdown with a weaker hand.

With more of a thought that he might have a draw, I'd like a river check (hoping to induce a second bluff). But that seems like the less likely of the situations.

I've noticed that this line (call turn raise, donk river) is often a very effective manuever with this type of hand (overpair on blank-ish board against a turn raise).

Interesting follow-up question: what river cards would turn the call-down into a check fold? Any?

tpir · #10 06-22-2006, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what river cards would turn the call-down into a check fold? Any?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think if he bets any river card we are in trouble. I am really hoping he has exactly TT or 99 and I doubt he is betting those. I also don't think he was sophisticated enough to try and bluff me on the turn after I 3-bet PF.... so a two-barrel job seems unlikely IMO.

FWIW, I called the turn, the river was the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I checked and he bet.....