NL 25 - QJ vs loose opponent

[reemas]

Opponent was about 51/14/.7. I had been about 11.0/11.0 after 30-40 hands at the table. I picked up QJo in MP.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

BTN: $23.95
SB: $23.65
BB: $37.40
UTG: $4.10
Hero (MP): $37.95
CO: $8.65

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.80</font>, CO calls $0.80, BTN folds, SB calls $0.70, BB folds

Flop: ($2.65) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $4</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

How to play at this point?

[Spurious]

i'd probably fold preflop, but depends.
call here and reevaluate on turn.
it puts you in a tough spot though.

[castigar]

Fold PF, Fold to his raise on flop. He doesn't bluff...he has 0.7 af.

[AFCBeer]

Nice reverse implied odds situation. I hate calling flop raises to check-fold the turn but this is probably the right move. The guy is pretty passive (small sample I know) so if he fires turn I think we are crushed.

[Profish2285]

I think this is close to a fold. His stats suggest he is loose passive and all of a sudden he is min raising. With his AF I think I could let this one go.

[Nick C]

Since he's so short-stacked, I am tempted to play for his stack, and versus a player with a little more of an aggression factor, I wouldn't hesitate.

This guy probably has Q8o or 83s or AQ or 88 or 33 or JJ, though. Which does give you a little chance of being ahead.

One thing that's beginning to puzzle me is why every donk seems to think the min-checkraise is a deceptive play. It's like, almost everyone does it, and the players who do it tend to either have a monster that they think they're being tricky about or they like to imitate this super-popular slowplay and try for folding equity on the cheap.

Which I suppose makes the play a little deceptive, until you figure out which type of player the opponent in question is.

[reemas]

im not sure i understand the AF stat. is this correct:

a player with a low aggression factor doesn't bet often. if he bets, it's unusual and he might be strong?

a player with a high AF might bet regardless of what he holds, and 2/3 barrel often. does he bluff often? calling him down or looking him up with a made hand can be profitable?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
im not sure i understand the AF stat. is this correct:

a player with a low aggression factor doesn't bet often. if he bets, it's unusual and he might be strong?

a player with a high AF might bet regardless of what he holds, and 2/3 barrel often. does he bluff often? calling him down or looking him up with a made hand can be profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

There can be complications, but you've got the basic idea.

Anyway, though, one thing AF does not take into account is bet size. So a guy who loves to make 25-cent donkbets into the preflop raiser or likes to make itty-bitty stabs at pots when checked to is going to have an AF that's somewhat artificially inflated.

Also, if a player is very loose, then he's generally going to be at least a little more aggressive than his AF seems to indicate, since he'll have junk such a high percentage of the time. Also, if the player does not raise much preflop, then c-bets are not going to account for much of his AF.

And if a player becomes short-stacked, then sometimes his play will become very erratic and he'll start playing more aggressively than he usually does. Some players will start frequently pushing all-in, for instance, whether their cards justify it or not. (In fact, sometimes you'll run into a player who will just start pushing all-in preflop every single hand until he either busts out or doubles up.)

[Sniiii]

This is why I don't raise with QJo in MP; it gets you into tricky situations. As played, I would call his raise on flop, and bet again on the turn, and be done with the hand with any further action from villain.

[Profish2285]

Cant do that sniii, villain only has 8 bucks so its push or fold time.