Took a shot at the next level - what do i do here?

[castigar]

I actually fold that. He could have TT,JJ,KK,AA..all of which beat us. If he has something like AhKh for a flush draw, we're an underdog.

[PJo336]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually fold that. He could have 22,TT,JJ,KK,AA..all of which beat us. If he has something like AhKh for a flush draw, we're an underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

[AFCBeer]

The fact its the BB with the shove makes the decision tougher. Its not his raise you were 3-betting but he cold called pre flop anyway. When he shoves he still has to be concerned by MP's hand.

[Profish2285]

mp folded pre

[AFCBeer]

OK sorry I really should read the HH more carefully. I still think the general point I was making applies though.

[Chomp]

I think villain can play this entire range this way:

Board: Jh Th 2c
Hand 0: 50.112% { QhQs }
Hand 1: 49.888% { JJ-TT, AhKh, AJs, JTs, AJo, JTo }

And that's not inclding a random bluff or KQ or JQ etc, all of which improves things for us. KK and AA makes it worse, but only 56%/43%.

It is very often the case that Stove tells us that an o/p on a setty/drawy/2pairy flop facing aggression in a raised pot has the equity to get it in. (BTW there's a theorem in this I am sure).

[vixticator]

People do silly things when they think you're robbing them and you have an overpair. Ignoring THAT, you are ahead of a bunch of [censored] that do this anyways. AJ/KJ should do this. Flush draw almost definitely does IMO. KQ, 89. Lots of draws all of which he can have. Only behind JT, 22, TT, JJ... really don't think KK/AA is much of their range. AQ may even be in there.

Not folding without more information.

[Profish2285]

This is a 3 bet pot tho. How many villains cold call a 3 bet with 89, KQ, 22, KJ, or even AJ?

[ICMoney]

From my experince people are not caling AT/AJ after there was a pfr and then a 3b and they are oop.

You need about 32.5% or so.

I think the most realistic range after he CR ai would prob be:

TT+,AhKh,KQs (21%)

Your equity goes up 1.5% if you add 22,jts.

You need to find about 10% more equity to call this.

QQ-TT,22,AhKh,KQs,JTs (29.3)



If he open shoved, maybe it less believable.


I don't think this is a snap like everyone is saying.

[vixticator]

Ugh, I didn't notice BB called and not MP. Disregard what I said.

My bad play has transfered over to posting too! Life doomswitch IMO.