50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??

[cooker3]

I'd put him on 2 pair about 90% of the time so fold

[AFCBeer]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

836 games 0.047 secs 17,787 games/sec

Board: Ks Qc 2h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.694% 29.19% 16.51% 244 138.00 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 54.306% 37.80% 16.51% 316 138.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

pokerstove says call

[/ QUOTE ]

No look at how many ties there are. We are not 45/55 to win the hand because the majority of the times we win we actually split it.

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong here. Poker Stove said you're a 3:1 favorite on the flop and turn against villain's range. Maybe a call is in order? IDK...I just don't fell comfortable calling the turn.

Board: Ks 2h Qc Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.057% 68.72% 05.33% 2661 206.50 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 25.943% 20.61% 05.33% 798 206.50 { 66+, A2s+, KQs, QJs, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain has 3-bet us preflop. He might raise preflop with that range but he isn't 3 betting with those hands. Come on no way is he playing 66 like this!

[Jouster777]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

836 games 0.047 secs 17,787 games/sec

Board: Ks Qc 2h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.694% 29.19% 16.51% 244 138.00 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 54.306% 37.80% 16.51% 316 138.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

pokerstove says call

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted fold but after thinking about it, its a clear call. I would discount JJ at least 50% in the above range but I would eliminate KK/QQ altogether. This guy is almost never playing a high set that fast here on a dry board.

[Numfar]

Very interesting thread.

A couple of more thoughts. Firstly, a lot of people are discounting the likelihood of the hands that push their decision one particular way. You can't do that - you need to look at both sides. So, it's not likely that he has AQ or JJ which is fair enough but as Jouster said, why would he play KK or QQ like this when, as this thread shows, it will get AK to fold?

Secondly, if he seldom plays AQ or JJ like this then how does he play them? I think JJ is more likely so I'll look at that. He re-raises PF - a 10 PFR would often do that. He fires the standard continuation bet. Then on the turn he picks up an OESD. Does he check fold? He knows you bet if he checks. If I'm him I think I have to push because I have outs and need to maximise my last bit of FE. Maybe AK or AQ will fold.

With AQ it's harder - I can see a check fold on the Turn.

The other thing is that it turns out that if we are villain, the correct play is to shove the Turn because Hero folds his AK 84% of the time.

[bige321786]

Hasn't the hand been misplayed?
Why aren't we raising on flop?
And for that matter, why are we not re-raising preflop?

[centgas]

[ QUOTE ]
Call sooo fast. Your hand is seriously under repped and that ten of clubs potentially provided villain with decent draw with which to semibluff. Those stats are also fairly meaningless in regards to villains 3 betting tendencies especially if you have been active at the table.

edit: Are you guys wanting to fold this if the turn is a two and he shoves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling that fast? That implies that you do not think about this situation too much which seems right given villains stats/action and range.

Calling 3bets PF with AK = ughh

[kerk]

You should never be RR Ak 100% of the time.
the majority yes, but as lego said, he has position. its good to mix up your play.
As played i would call the flop and fold the turn. i Cant see him double barreling JJ on this sort of flop when its obvisous you have some kind of a hand.
I think at best you are splitting this hand.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Hasn't the hand been misplayed?
Why aren't we raising on flop?
And for that matter, why are we not re-raising preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling 3bets in position with AK is fine. You can still extract money in position on an A or K high flop. It disguises the times you just call pre-flop 3bets with AA,KK, or QQ with position which is also good to do sometimes. (Plus in this particular situation AK is likely not too far ahead of his 3bet range....if it even is actually.) I think I mght actually rather fold than 4bet here. And I barely barely barely ever fold AK pre-flop especially versus only one other opponent....could probably count the # of times I folded pre-flop vs. one opponent on 1 hand perhaps with fingers left over.


Raising the flop would IMO be very bad. Name one hand worse than AK that calls a raise on the flop. Answer: There aren't any. Name hands better than AK that fold to a raise on the flop. Answer: There aren't any.


Also this is where the extracting on an A or K high board after calling a pre-flop 3bet comes into play. Even on a safe looking board like Kc9d3s I'm not going to raise villian's bet there. Why? Answer: Why do I want to try to make QQ,JJ fold? I'd just call flop bet. If he pushes turn I probably call on that board precisely because QQ,JJ don't beat me unlike the actual hand were QQ does beat me. However, usually villian will then check turn. I then check behind. Now a lot of times villian will bet river and I shove if there's anything left. If villian checks river I make like 55%-65% bet and extract more value.


The only time I might raise a flop bet is on an extremely drawy board although even raising there in this situation is very unlikely because the way this hand is setup with my raising UTG, being reraised by BB I doubt draws would be much of his range if at all and the only real way I can think of it is if he's got AKs or maybe AQs or if the board comes out monotone or reall connected so one card in the hole could make a straight draw. So anyway here I probably just call bet on most drawy flops as well.



In the example hand the only reason it might be at all close to a call is because the T on the turn just gave JJ an open ended straight draw. (If turn were a 2 I've come to believe this a fairly trivial fold...that Q really is troublesome.) However, for villian to shove turn with a J IMO......1.) He has to be a good player who also thinks that I'm a good player and that I can fold at least AK here. 2.) He has to be a pretty bad player who is aggro and either bets a ton and/or shoves draws. IMO most players at this level would not shove JJ here unless it fits into category one. However, I do believe most would shove AK.




BTW villian showed his cards after I folded.

[hendal]

show in white plz.

[scallop]

I have real problems 4-betting AK.

Im guessing the thinking goes something like:

"They normally fold when we 4-bet AK, and even when they do shove our Equity vs any hand that isnt AA is ok"

I still seem to stack of alot with this hand. Maybe im running bad.