I thought this was supposed to be a good flop...

[steelbase]

UTG is 65/13/.5 really loose passive and peels way too much
MP is 55/30/1 has been really bad loose aggro and weird preflop, but reasonable and passive vs me postflop.
Btn is 23/8.5/1 and has seemed really tight and nitty.
~80 hands on each.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero....

[HoneyBadger]

I would actually not raise this from the SB. First to act in a large pot kind of sucks, it'd be easier if you have the option to c/r in a smaller pot. I doubt your equity edge is so big that you suffer a significant loss by not raising.

And there you have it on the flop. I'd still call as you have outs against two-pair, or they may be drawing. There's a backdoor straight draw as well. It's close though.

[mvoss]

I think you have a big equity edge 4-ways here preflop, and the raise is good.

Once the nit 3-bets I guess you can narrow his range to overpairs, sets 2 pair or straights, maybe there's a small chance he has A8. I can't lay down my overpair though when you only have 80 hands on the nit.

[Apanage]

I think a lot of our preflop equity is a non-realizable one.
I prefer to have the pot unraised against this particular line-up.
Our folding equity post-flop is close to zero and the flop changes the hand values drastically.
If I took a guess we have an equity in the ranges of 30-40% which equals 0.1-0.3 SB. Pushing tiny equity edges against large fields OOP with hands that are extremely hard to play post-flop is IMO a losing proposition.

[gehrig]

[ QUOTE ]

If I took a guess we have an equity in the ranges of 30-40% which equals 0.1-0.3 SB.

[/ QUOTE ]
how big of a mistake do u think openign 93o in the cutoff is

[mvoss]

WTF is up with people and their "I don't want to raise preflop because a bad flop might come"???

Have you forgotten the really simple preflop fundamentals? You have a big eq. edge, just push it and move on to the interesting streets.

If you don't raise this preflop is it with the intention of checking and folding whenever an overcard falls? The hand doesn't become any easier to play by not raising preflop. Who the hell cares about fold equity, when you look down and see a hand like 99 one word should come to mind, VALUE!

[HoneyBadger]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF is up with people and their "I don't want to raise preflop because a bad flop might come"???

Have you forgotten the really simple preflop fundamentals? You have a big eq. edge, just push it and move on to the interesting streets.


[/ QUOTE ]
You are first to act with a marginal hand. It will almost always be a marginal hand against 3-4 people post-flop, unless you flop a set. You have the worst possible position; you are likely to make mistakes much larger than your ~6% preflop equity edge. The pot becomes bigger, so everybody is correct in peeling the flop. You will make a mistake playing this hand. If you raise preflop, you practically must bet the flop. You can not check raise, and even if you could the pot is bigger so it matters less.

If you keep the pot smaller by giving up a little edge, you may do better post-flop. Also, you still have the option of check raising, and of seeing the action before you. You are basically eliminating your positional disadvantage on the flop by blind-checking.

I think realizable equity is an important concept. This is similar to saying pocket deuces have an edge over, say, AKs preflop; this is true, but I'll take AKs any day, especially OOP.

[Apanage]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF is up with people and their "I don't want to raise preflop because a bad flop might come"???

Have you forgotten the really simple preflop fundamentals? You have a big eq. edge, just push it and move on to the interesting streets.

If you don't raise this preflop is it with the intention of checking and folding whenever an overcard falls? The hand doesn't become any easier to play by not raising preflop. Who the hell cares about fold equity, when you look down and see a hand like 99 one word should come to mind, VALUE!

[/ QUOTE ]

These discussions comes up all the time and every time most people miss out my point.
Being out of position has a cost and if we could calculate every single outcome postflop in this hand we could put a value on it.
It is my strong view that the cost of being OOP sometimes (call it negative implied odds if it feels more comfortable)is bigger than the hot-and cold EV we get by raising preflop.
If my opinion is right then a raise in some cases have negative EV even if the hot- and cold equity shows that we have a positive EV.


The by far most important reason to raise in limit holdem is to get fold equity either if it is instant (incredibly valuable) or delayed( valuable to a lesser extent). Raising for preflop value is far less important because the hand value changes drastically when the flop comes and all the big bets comes after that hand value changes.

I think that Honeybadgers comparison between AK IP against 22 OOP is relevant in this case also.
Reliable simulations says that a player with AK wins 59% of the money playing IP against a player with 22 OOP.

Which also means that separating preflop equity from the possibility to realize that equity is a questionable thing to do.
But there are many players here that think their postflop play never should influence their preflop decisions as long as the hand range stoving shows that they have an edge preflop. That is wrong IMO

And many of those is also nosebleeding from the blinds with figures between -0.15-0.21 from BB.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

If I took a guess we have an equity in the ranges of 30-40% which equals 0.1-0.3 SB.


[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure that? If we have 30% equity four ways we gain 0.2SB on our raise, and if it's 40% it's 0.6SB. Also let's not forget that the BB folded which must increase our equity too.

That's a pretty big gain just for clicking the raise button.

Sure it's not going to be a breeze to play postflop but you can't pass on this preflop edge IMO.

[kimchi]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of our preflop equity is a non-realizable one.
I prefer to have the pot unraised against this particular line-up.
Our folding equity post-flop is close to zero and the flop changes the hand values drastically.
If I took a guess we have an equity in the ranges of 30-40% which equals 0.1-0.3 SB. Pushing tiny equity edges against large fields OOP with hands that are extremely hard to play post-flop is IMO a losing proposition.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think thepre-flop equity is good enough to raise here. Firstly there's the (slim chance in a multi-way) chance you fold out the BB and get some dead money in the pot. OP managed to do this somehow.

Then there are the 2 loose guys limping in. You need to push your edge and make them pay to see the flop with their crappy cards.

The tight button is probably overlimping with somewhat speculative hands given his position on 2 loose players and multi-way action.

Given this, and the flop action, I would guess the button has limped with something like 44 or T9o and has connected well.

I imagine hero is behind, and even if he isn't has several overcards to dodge. This might be a close fold, although if the hero calls, I think the other 2 guys will provide a reasonable overlay to carry on. Turning a 9 however, further connects the board.

This is a close one for me.