$26 - 45 sng bubble

[sssick]

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (7 handed)

UTG (t19320)
MP1 (t8200)
MP2 (t4220)
CO Hero (t6280)</font>
Button (t9080)
SB (t7040)
BB (t13360)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]], K[[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]].

7 players left, top 6 make the money. It's folded to me. Everyone's tight. Push here? What range does the BB need to call?

[deepsquat]

Personallty id push here. Any read on BB?

[sssick]

BB hasn't called anything at the final table, but has raised once or twice each rotation.

[deepsquat]

id be shoving [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[memphis57]

I gather you don't want BB to call you? That you just want to take down the blinds?

It doesn't look to me like stealing the blinds once does a lot for you. If MP2 wins an all-in hand in the next round or so, you'll still be tight with 2 others for next to be blinded out, depending upon whether there are antes and exactly when the blinds go up again.

And to answer your question, I think a normal BB would call you with any pocket pair or any ace - just the hands that would be favored to win against you. I say that because he can survive losing an all-in, although it would hurt him - he would still have a slight chip lead on SB and MP1 (after he takes the blinds) and MP2. But if he wins the all-in, he pulls even with the chip leader, and anyway he probably knows from reading 2+2 that the bubble is time when chip leaders should be building their stacks.

So, the safest thing is to wait and see what happens to MP2, but if you want to be proactive, you might try to get BB to call you with a bad hand. How? Well, think about this - he's the second biggest stack, but the biggest is to his immediate right. Thus, he presumably hasn't been able to do much bullying because he doesn't know what UTG will do. But his BB is the one time that he doesn't face that uncertainty - UTG has already folded. So, what if you raise to 3000, like you want to force him out? He may react by thinking you'll be concerned about the pay bubble and think he can easily force you off your hand by going all-in on you - then you call him.

[hagbard celine]

I don't know if you've played these SNGs, but they play REALLY tight -- in general.

You will find players that will call you at this stage with a lot of aces and pairs. You add 1500 to your stack by stealing, that's a fair percentage of Hero's stack, so stealing is beneficial, and I think in these tournaments open-shoving this shallow fairly light is pretty optimal, as most Villains are calling way too tight.

[levAA]

with 6BBs this is an easy push.

[sapsuckah]

[ QUOTE ]
with 6BBs this is an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT... especially with antes and not being very far out of last place.

I may decide otherwise if this was the bubble of a 1-table S&amp;G where the difference between bubbling and 3rd place money is big enough to *maybe* make folding here $EV+. But with six places paying, the difference between bubbling and 6th place money isn't enough to get me to pass up cEV+ spots, as this clearly is.

[Willd]

There aren't any antes in these FTP sngs but that only changes it from a fist pump shove to a shove I think. The bubble has a minor effect but a shove here is so +cev that the divergence between cev and $ev isn't enough to make this a fold.

[sapsuckah]

ok - I don't play on FTP so I didn't know there were no antes. Thanks...

regardless, like I said, I think this is a clear shove.