Stars $3r: OESD+FD/Need a line (65bb deep)

[surfinillini]

What's my line?

No reads, just moved to table. Effective stack about 52bb. UTG limp is suspect against these low limit donks.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t11666)
MP3 (t9995)
CO (t8975)
Button (t7851)
SB (t17043)
Hero (t38301)
Villain (t31846)
UTG+1 (t16483)
MP1 (t81473)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t600, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t1600) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t6000</font>

HERO?

[J.A.K.]

I would like to think no one limping behind supports your suspicion (pretty weak assumption), because we are good against an overpair. Sets and higher FD(unlikely) hurt us. I stoved all the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] broadways that might limp, along with 88/55, (I think TT/JJ raise pre but w/e it's in there) and the monsters QQ+ that were looking to trap and we're on the good side of a flip against that range getting 1.2-1. Not to mention the times he's taking a stab. I cram it in here.

[Yoshi63]

Being an unraised pot, I can't imagine villian is stabbing at your overbet too often. I feel like villain is calling a jam a huge % of the time, which is not really what we want when jamming draws.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.793% 47.79% 00.00% 24604 0.00 { 7h6h }
Hand 1: 52.207% 52.21% 00.00% 26876 0.00 { JJ+, 88, 55, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, ATs, Ah9h, Ah8h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, QhJh, QhTh, ATo }


It's pretty messy, but even including all the better flushdraws, you're strong enough to get it all in. Calling sucks, I think, since you may be subjecting yourself to reverse-implied odds if a heart hits. This is an interesting hand, but I would shove and hope for the best.

[spackle240]

this hand really isn't that complicated... all in is the only play here

[J.A.K.]

[ QUOTE ]
Being an unraised pot, I can't imagine villian is stabbing at your overbet too often. I feel like villain is calling a jam a huge % of the time, which is not really what we want when jamming draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have to be stabbing "too often", anything &gt;0% helps our equity. I don't mind AT or an overpair calling. We are 55% and 53% respectively getting some juice. I have to take these. Better players might pass.

[SuperUberBob]

jam all-in. You have enough fold equity to make it worthwhile. Plus, even if you are called, you're probably in a race situation.

[Yoshi63]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Being an unraised pot, I can't imagine villian is stabbing at your overbet too often. I feel like villain is calling a jam a huge % of the time, which is not really what we want when jamming draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have to be stabbing "too often", anything &gt;0% helps our equity. I don't mind AT or an overpair calling. We are 55% and 53% respectively getting some juice. I have to take these. Better players might pass.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think better players would pass on any &gt;50% scenario when there is dead money involved. At least not this early. Sure AT or overpair are great for us, but we wouldn't be as happy to see Axhh... especially if x is an 8.

I agree with your resolution to call, but am simply pointing out that your analysis might not be sufficiently complete.

[helter skelter]

What's wrong with just calling the raise and seeing what happens?

[RStMartin]

Push it real good.

[cardsfan04]

[ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with just calling the raise and seeing what happens?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's WAY too passive in a tourney for me. If you can take it down w/o hitting the draw, that's a huge plus.

What do people think of raising, but not all in. Obviously, if we put the 3rd bet in here, and he jams, we are committed, but jamming looks kinda like a combo draw that is trying to take it down right here, but has plenty of outs. What if we RR to say 17000. Obviously, if he plays, it will get allin, but doesn't that raise look stronger than an allin?