QQ on flushed board. Am I crazy or logically brave?

LearningCurve · #1 01-18-2007, 05:43 AM

Third hand at table. I'd just won second with a c-bet. Would now raise pf higher to get rid of some of the villains, but at the time didn't know 4XBB+1 would get so many callers. This flop is icky but I remember reading a made flush on the flop is statistically not all that high (seems like maybe 16% or so) and hated to just throw my hand away there without taking a stab. Without the c-bet, I knew someone would take the pot. On the turn, I found myself with a very nice set. Didn't want to check it as I figured villain would take control and I'd have to push when I wasn't crazy about doing so. Nonetheless, his checkraise resulted in my either having to walk away or to throw my last several dollars in. By then, I thought it was the correct move mathmatically.

I'll post the results later, but I'd appreciate comments on all please.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($10.75)
MP1 ($5.80)
MP2 ($9.95)
CO ($9.30)
Button ($5.20)
SB ($9.90)
BB ($4.80)
UTG ($5.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.5, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.40.

Flop: ($2.15) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, MP2 calls $2, CO folds, UTG folds.

Turn: ($6.15) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $4, MP2 raises to $7.45, Hero calls $3.45.

River: ($21.05) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $21.05

VPIP100 · #2 01-18-2007, 06:08 AM

With what hands would villain call the flop and raise the turn after you showed so much aggresion? I do think a lower set is in his range which you totally crush, and if he does have a flush you got 10 outs to improve.

I just don't know if I like the turn bet, I think smaller flop bet would achieve the same thing and then you could c/c turn and river, I think that is a better line.

Vyse · #3 01-18-2007, 07:02 AM

Bump because I'd like to know how to play this too

Corrupt Rose · #4 01-18-2007, 07:11 AM

5.1-1 in odds to call after his checkraise and we got top set. We are only behind to a made flush here, and even then, we got outs. I am definately calling this and I play the whole hand exactly the same.

I may even push the turn myself.

uminchu · #5 01-18-2007, 07:11 AM

yo i shove over the top on the turn, there is too much monies in there and you have outs to improve at this point and if he has a made flush good hand to him sir, but meh suck out and win the monies, i like the turn bet after you hit the set, for future reference if you flop a flush play it fast, cuz fourth card kills your action

pineapple888 · #6 01-18-2007, 07:51 AM

Grunch.

The phrase for the day is "pot control".

Four-way on the flop, most of the time somebody is either going to chase, or already have you beat on that awful flop. OOP, I check it, then bet if a brick falls on the turn.

As played, the turn is good news/bad news. I'm still not real thrilled about betting out.

Tiki · #7 01-18-2007, 09:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't know if I like the turn bet, I think smaller flop bet would achieve the same thing and then you could c/c turn and river, I think that is a better line.

[/ QUOTE ]

This advice is just plain wrong.

I'd never allow a free turn card for a naked heart to outdraw. IMO you played this hand just about perfectly. The result does not matter.

Jouster777 · #8 01-18-2007, 09:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Grunch.

The phrase for the day is "pot control".

Four-way on the flop, most of the time somebody is either going to chase, or already have you beat on that awful flop. OOP, I check it, then bet if a brick falls on the turn.

As played, the turn is good news/bad news. I'm still not real thrilled about betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]My first impulse was to bet ~PSB on flop but the more I think about it the more I think Pineapple is right.

With a bunch of loose limpers the likelihood of a flopped flush is about 8% each whereas the the FD is about 12.5% each. With 3 other players there's a pretty good chance that someone hit the flush so pot control is a good idea and a smaller flop bet will still weed out the chaff and get some value from FDs.

With fewer players to the flop or a raised pot preflop I'd be more likely to bet full pot on flop as the likelihood of a flopped flush is lower with the tighter ranges (5-7%) and the FD is about 2-3x this.

Da GOAT · #9 01-18-2007, 09:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
5.1-1 in odds to call after his checkraise and we got top set. We are only behind to a made flush here, and even then, we got outs. I am definately calling this and I play the whole hand exactly the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tiki · #10 01-18-2007, 10:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This flop is icky but I remember reading a made flush on the flop is statistically not all that high (seems like maybe 16% or so) and hated to just throw my hand away there without taking a stab.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against 3 opponents who play one half of all suited hands there is about a 7% chance of one of them flopping a flush if you don't hold a card of the board suit yourself.

Edit: 6%