Calling bluffs with weakish hands.

[SeanC]

Hey,

I'm having trouble profitably calling bluffs/very thin v-bets with weakish hands like MP or TPWK. Not that this is something one should be regularly doing, but I feel my folding tendencies are kinda -EV.

My first question is regarding the math. If I'm getting, let's say, 3-1, do I need to feel there's a 25% chance he's bluffing to call, or deduce that he would bluff with ~25% of his "betting range" (a missed draw or two, for example), which itself may only be 50% of his overall range...therefore meaning he would only need to be bluffing ~12% of the time (.25*.5) for the call to be profitable?

My second question is how do you accurately quantify the likelihood of the person bluffing with certain holdings of his range? Intuition and history? That's obviously the tough part but are there any tips or tricks to be shared?

Thanks.

[jay_shark]

You have to look for flop textures where you believe your opponent may be over-bluffing and flop textures where you believe he may be under-bluffing . Many players tend to over-bluff on paired boards or when there are three cards to a flush hoping to represent the flush .

There will be times when you may be indifferent to calling or folding if your opponent is bluffing with the right frequency . Over time , you may be able to improve your intuition in knowing when to make a thin value call .

Another point worth mentioning is that some players may make an incorrect value bet when it should realy be included in his bluff range . Players of this type tend to bluff more than is optimal because of their incorrect value bets .

[SeanC]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to look for flop textures where you believe your opponent may be over-bluffing and flop textures where you believe he may be under-bluffing . Many players tend to over-bluff on paired boards or when there are three cards to a flush hoping to represent the flush .

There will be times when you may be indifferent to calling or folding if your opponent is bluffing with the right frequency . Over time , you may be able to improve your intuition in knowing when to make a thin value call .

Another point worth mentioning is that some players may make an incorrect value bet when it should realy be included in his bluff range . Players of this type tend to bluff more than is optimal because of their incorrect value bets .

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Thanks, jay, that makes sense. What about identifying general situations where someone tends to bluff too much, such as you taking passive lines or whatever.

Also, how do you determine what is too much or too little bluffing? First determine about what would be optimal and then compare to vil's play?

Optimal bluffing frequencies was touched on in replies to another thread of mine, but I may have it wrong.

If you would bet pot with, let's say, 20% of your range in a given situation, your optimal bluffing frequency would be 33% of that (as you're offering your opponent 2-1), or about 6% of the time.

I'm sure I messed that up as I'm new to the game theory world of poker, so any help is appreciated.

Now, once you've determined someone over- or under-bluffs in certain situations, you can then exploit by either always calling or always folding, right?

Good point with the super-thin v-betting.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
My second question is how do you accurately quantify the likelihood of the person bluffing with certain holdings of his range? Intuition and history? That's obviously the tough part but are there any tips or tricks to be shared?


[/ QUOTE ]
Intuition is usually a subconcious recall of history. That's not something we can really share with each other on how do that other than soak up as much info as you can and try to store it.

Apart from knowing the player, there are several bluffing situations that are common. Since we are talking about the river here, one of the most common is the missed draw. Aggressive players will step right in if they sense any weakness on the turn or the river and bet out a missed draw.

Another common situation is when the river is a card that could have helped on or more hands. An A on the river is a good one. A draw card filling a flush or a straight is another good one.

How you are perceived by other is also a factor in how often you will be facing a bluff. From the sounds of it, if you are folding a lot to river bets, you may be setting yourself up as a weak/tight target.

A checkraise on the river is usually not a bluff. On the other hand, if you feel you are getting run over a bit, try a checkraise bluff yourself. It will sure get the other player's attention. If you get caught, checkraise for value next time. If you don't get caught, your check will get a lot more respect.

When out of position, try some blocking size bets. A raise will only be a bluff from a maniac or a very sophisticated player.

Sometimes the size of the river bet will be in relation to whether it's a value bet, a teaser bet or a bluff.

There's more but I'm running out of ink.

[SeanC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My second question is how do you accurately quantify the likelihood of the person bluffing with certain holdings of his range? Intuition and history? That's obviously the tough part but are there any tips or tricks to be shared?


[/ QUOTE ]
Intuition is usually a subconcious recall of history. That's not something we can really share with each other on how do that other than soak up as much info as you can and try to store it.

Apart from knowing the player, there are several bluffing situations that are common. Since we are talking about the river here, one of the most common is the missed draw. Aggressive players will step right in if they sense any weakness on the turn or the river and bet out a missed draw.

Another common situation is when the river is a card that could have helped on or more hands. An A on the river is a good one. A draw card filling a flush or a straight is another good one.

How you are perceived by other is also a factor in how often you will be facing a bluff. From the sounds of it, if you are folding a lot to river bets, you may be setting yourself up as a weak/tight target.

A checkraise on the river is usually not a bluff. On the other hand, if you feel you are getting run over a bit, try a checkraise bluff yourself. It will sure get the other player's attention. If you get caught, checkraise for value next time. If you don't get caught, your check will get a lot more respect.

When out of position, try some blocking size bets. A raise will only be a bluff from a maniac or a very sophisticated player.

Sometimes the size of the river bet will be in relation to whether it's a value bet, a teaser bet or a bluff.

There's more but I'm running out of ink.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good advice, thanks!

[Ray Zee]

you should be calling with those hands fairly often against the right players. if you are seldom doing it then they are bluffing you out alot of the time and making you call when they read you for weak hands that you will call with.

yes most times you are making the math decison of your winning chances versus the pot size.

[SeanC]

[ QUOTE ]
you should be calling with those hands fairly often against the right players. if you are seldom doing it then they are bluffing you out alot of the time and making you call when they read you for weak hands that you will call with.

yes most times you are making the math decison of your winning chances versus the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.