400NL - villain takes a monster line, call anyways?

[Mossberg]

I'm just moving up to 400, and I feel like I'm probably folding more often than I should be (partly scared of the money, partly not used to the increased aggression).

villain is a 42/6.5/1.3 over 200 hands. I've been isolating him a fair amount (playing a solid 20/16/4 game), and he's generally been playing straightforward and somewhat passive. He makes stupid-light calldowns, but I haven't seen him get out of line wrt bluffing. I should also mention that big pairs are definitely in his range. Also, I feel like almost every time a donk makes a really weak turn bet, and then follows up with a strong river bet, it's usually a monster - yea?

Blinds: $2/$4
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $396.00
Button: $529.25
Hero: $538.30
BB: $1.263.25

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $18</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($40, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $33</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $66</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($172, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $75</font>, Hero calls.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($322, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $250</font>, Hero folds.

[Mossberg]

fwiw I feel like I have to fold here because 1) his line looks like a monster to me, 2) I don't really have any good reason to believe he's running a big bluff 3) I figured he would check behind (or atleast bet alot smaller) with worse made hands like 86 or A8.

I've played around with stove a bit, and it seems like 3) is the crux of the decision.

I thought it was a std laydown at the time, but a 2p2 friend told me over IM that he thinks that it's a call.

[Caballa]

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw I feel like I have to fold here because 1) his line looks like a monster to me, 2) I don't really have any good reason to believe he's running a big bluff 3) I figured he would check behind (or atleast bet alot smaller) with worse made hands like 86 or A8.

[/ QUOTE ]
He might not check behind with hands you beat due to the fact that you've shown no strength during this hand. He might be exploiting your weakness by betting big on the river.
Against this villain I'd call, as people with those stats like to bluff their missed draws, I've found.

[FireStorm]

Fold the river pls, Villain fired at it three times. There aren't many draws he could have missed other than 6x or T9, and 6x can't be 65. These and 99/8x are the only hands you beat, and I doubt this is a naked 8 often enough to warrant a call.

[Nick Royale]

Well played.

[Mossberg]

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Well played.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks! I've had a couple 2p2ers suggest over msn that I shoud lead the turn. What are your thoughts on this?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well played.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks! I've had a couple 2p2ers suggest over msn that I shoud lead the turn. What are your thoughts on this?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't really mind betting the turn, but personally I wouldn't do it because I pretty much never play my strong hands that way. With a set for example I would just 3-bet flop to get it in vs a draw, over-pair, combo-draw etc. None of this matters unless villain knows this obv, but I still like to balance my play and a donk on the turn might easily seem fishy (which is why it might actually be good to do it with a strong hand).

The main reasons I like check/calling the turn is because a) I think he'll bet his draws/air very often and b) I think if we check/call the turn he's less likely to bluff the river. If we bet the turn and check the river opponents can easily interpret is as we're giving it up and it might make him more inclined to bluff. This is at least my experience. The reason I don't want to induce a bluff is because I don't think it's profitable to call a decent river bet given your read. Thus I'm most often check/folding the river, probably calling a smallish bet.

[Mossberg]

I think that is very on point. Thanks again man.

[xorbie]

im not folding this river ever.

[willw9]

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im not folding this river ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate please.