Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

[nsj]

I call and raise the turn.
Tough to put him on a hand, but my guess is he's trying to bluff c/r a c-bet that likely missed this flop, or he has some sort of combo hand -- SCs 45 - TJ with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], two heart overs, or a pp 22-44, 66, 88.

If villain fires on a blank turn, which I think is anything T-A no heart, or a 5 or 7, I'm raising the pot. If he checks a blank turn, I'm firing for about 500, and if the turn is a scare, I'm reacting to his action.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Do you fold, call, or raise (and why)? If you raise, to what amount? Putting aside a fold for the time being, there are certainly merits to both calling and raising so please spend some time on your thought process here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling is our best option. We maintain position on our opponent on future streets. In addition, if our opponent does have our hand currently beat, we're going to get called or pushed against if we raise.

I wish our opponent had raised us more here. His raise could mean any number of the following:

1. I don't have anything, but I don't think this flop hit you either, let's see if I can steal it from you.

2. I hit a piece of this flop (perhaps top pair, perhaps a pair and straight or flush draw, etc.) Do you have an overpair?

3. I flopped the straight and I'm trying to induce you to overplay an overpair or get upset at my small raise and come back over the top of me.

4. I flopped a flush draw and pair and I'm willing to go to the felt with it, but I'm also hoping my small raise will slow you down on future streets and allow me to catch up if I'm behind.

5. I hit my set and I'm hoping you overplay an overpair or flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
2) His range of possible hands is obviously pretty huge but if you care to speculate feel free?

[/ QUOTE ]

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He could also have 5/5 or 7/7, although much less likely given our cards.

[ QUOTE ]
3) If you call or raise and he calls, do you have a plan for future streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Luckily we'll have position on future streets, forcing our opponent to make the first move. Depending on what cards fall, we can proceed from there. There's such a wide range of hands our opponent could potentially have here though, that we should proceed with caution and not get overzealous with our hand.

It's unlikely that he puts us on two pair at this point, so our hand is well disguised. But, what is he putting us on? Is he trying to steal from us, does he believe we missed the flop, etc. This is going to prove reasonably difficult and interesting.

[Roman]

I flat call and play a turn, you cant reraise here and fold to a push cause he will push a good draw here quite often and he will also raise a made hand both better and occasionally worse than yours.

I really think flat calling is the only viable option, you also get the added benefit of winning the pot versus a better hand often times when the turn is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or whatnot.

[KneeCo]

without going into too great detail (because I covered this in my post in the previous thread), I say Hero should re-raise here for two reasons:
1) His hand is so well disguised here due to the pf action that the villain can easily be on any number of inferior hands
2) The high possibility of running into a scare card on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I flat call and play a turn, you cant reraise here and fold to a push cause he will push a good draw here quite often and he will also raise a made hand both better and occasionally worse than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand. Are you saying you can't raise because more often than not that will lead to a situation where you are all in with the best hand?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
without going into too great detail (because I covered this in my post in the previous thread), I say Hero should re-raise here for two reasons:
1) His hand is so well disguised here due to the pf action that the villain can easily be on any number of inferior hands
2) The high possibility of running into a scare card on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I flat call and play a turn, you cant reraise here and fold to a push cause he will push a good draw here quite often and he will also raise a made hand both better and occasionally worse than yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand. Are you saying you can't raise because more often than not that will lead to a situation where you are all in with the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the idea is that you are letting villian get away from worse hands that are drawing thin, you are letting him take control with worse hands with strong draws, and you are letting him get allin with you when he has a better hand.

[KneeCo]

Right. But my question is why is it assumed that Hero would fold to a push. I don't think we can assume that the villain is mini raising here with a set or straight, not on such a draw happy board.

[Paul Thomson]

His raise is suspect. It's either a bluff or the nuts 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Maybe 99 but I wouldn't play it that way. It could also be a weak hand that is trying to see if you were on a total bluff. I never play a hand this way, so it's hard for me to speculate. He's giving us odds to draw to so many hands even if he had any of the above hands. More than anything, it means that he's a donk. So I would be willing to play deeper into the hand against him. But for now, I'd call. Gotta goto bed. But I'll speculate some more tomorrow.

[NoahSD]

(without looking)

Villain's raise is oddly small, but it's tough to know what that means, so I just hope that either I won't need to interpret it, or I'll be able to interpret it once I get more information.

For now, I think he's on a very wide range. It's basically any draw and any pair that he would've called with preflop. I think it's something like A8h-AJh+, 55-JJ, KTh+, JT, QTh+, 67s, 78s, 89s, 9Ts, K9, A9.

Against this range, we've got 66% equity. My original thought was to take the turn because I thought it would clarify things, but after looking at some turn cards, I no longer like that option (Equity after certain turns: 2h- 65%, 2c- 77%, 9d- 35%, Th- 55%, Ac- 68%). My problem is that the only really easy river cards to play are offsuit 2s, 3s, 4s, and Js, and our opponent gets off easy on his draws when we call the flop and bet the turn here.

So, I favor a reraise here, and given the texture of the flop, the fact that we're still pretty deep, and the fact that I really don't see getting away from this hand right now, I make it a pretty big one. I make it 900.

[Roman]

so u 3bet and call a push? thats terrible with stacks this deep.

[badplayer]

Fold. It's not because I think he has the best hand. To me, the small check-raise suggests a strong draw, an over-pair, or a complete bluff.

At this point, I only see two options: push all-in or fold.
And while I suspect I have the best hand, it could be quite vulnerable to a heart or even an overcard. The chance that an all-in will get villian to fold or call with a draw is outweighed by the possiblity of getting outdrawn.

At this early stage of the tournament, the most important thing I can do is to survive. I just don't see the point in putting everything at risk on this one hand, even if we have the best hand right now. If villian has a heart draw, there is about a one-in-three chance that this will be the last hand. If villian has an overpair, there is at least a one-in-four chance that this will be our last hand. I'm not willing to take that risk so early in the tournament.

Of course, there is a time and place to gamble. I just don't believe this is one of those times.

That said, I can't wait to find out that villian has 72 off-suit. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

After all, what do I know?