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  #11  
Old 11-30-2007, 12:26 AM
SABR42 SABR42 is offline
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

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LAGR42

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btw I love this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #12  
Old 11-30-2007, 12:44 AM
bottomset bottomset is offline
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

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If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7

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I don't like to post postflop stats over a small simple since the things he does on the turn/river are over such a small sample that it doesn't mean much.

But villain is definitely capable of aggressive plays like check-raising a straight draw on the flop, he's not a station.

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seriously so many hands are over with before the turn

500hand sample he played maybe 75-90flops and maybe 20-30turns
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  #13  
Old 11-30-2007, 12:51 AM
bottomset bottomset is offline
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

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IMO, if SABR starts laying down Queens in these spots, he's gonna get OWNED big time.

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This is what I was thinking too. If I opened from UTG and he 3-bet from MP, I'm probably folding.

But I raised from LP, CO called, and he squeezed from the button. With my wide opening range there is no way I can fold here.

The only question is whether to call or to just shove now.

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I did some math

if his calling range is QQ+ AK if you shove, he needs to have 15combos of hands he folds to a shove for it to be breakeven

15combos roughly works out to 1/3rd of the time he's squeezing he's folding

if his calling range is JJ+ AK, pushing is breakeven-ish if he's only squeezing with that range and never air, and +EV if there is any air in there

I think with your image you'll be +EV shoving
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  #14  
Old 11-30-2007, 01:11 AM
Renton Renton is offline
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

i wonder if calling and c/f'ing most flops is best here.

i.e., calling the raise, c/f Kxx Axx 100% of the time obv, and c/f lowcard flops as well whenever we feel we're beat (i.e. when he pots it or timing tells etc.} We'll gross a decent amount of $$ back due to flopping sets, but also the flop will go check check a lot (this happens a lot more than we think), at which point we'll basically always win the pot unless the turn is an ace or a king.

I think his range is probably not much wider than QQ+ AK, but since he can have AK, that means we're going to win the pot a fair amount. I doubt he's going to have the stones to cbet AK (or whatever other air that he has) that often when he misses, since our call looks so much like TT/JJ/QQ.
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  #15  
Old 11-30-2007, 01:22 AM
TheProdigy TheProdigy is offline
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

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If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7

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I don't like to post postflop stats over a small simple since the things he does on the turn/river are over such a small sample that it doesn't mean much.

But villain is definitely capable of aggressive plays like check-raising a straight draw on the flop, he's not a station.

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seriously so many hands are over with before the turn

500hand sample he played maybe 75-90flops and maybe 20-30turns

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Sorry don't get where you guys got most of the things you were talking about.

I look at aggression factor postflop because it gives you another idea of how aggressive this guy is. If he is 19/7/1, it means he is unaggressive, which means he could be an unimaginative 19/7, where-as a 19/7/4 is one who can get fiesty. As for the w$sd, it means on a low flop you can c-r him and take down the pot because he is scared of sets a lot and doesn't see showdown much
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  #16  
Old 11-30-2007, 01:45 AM
bottomset bottomset is offline
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

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If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't like to post postflop stats over a small simple since the things he does on the turn/river are over such a small sample that it doesn't mean much.

But villain is definitely capable of aggressive plays like check-raising a straight draw on the flop, he's not a station.

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously so many hands are over with before the turn

500hand sample he played maybe 75-90flops and maybe 20-30turns

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry don't get where you guys got most of the things you were talking about.

I look at aggression factor postflop because it gives you another idea of how aggressive this guy is. If he is 19/7/1, it means he is unaggressive, which means he could be an unimaginative 19/7, where-as a 19/7/4 is one who can get fiesty. As for the w$sd, it means on a low flop you can c-r him and take down the pot because he is scared of sets a lot and doesn't see showdown much

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I was just estimating based on how the FR tables play(though its from my style of play perspective, not so much a 19/7 one)

he's probably seeing a higher % of flops and turns than more aggro players like myself or Sabr do for a couple reasons

we raise/reraise preflop more often which leads to more pots taken down preflop

on the flop we bet pretty often, and a ton of hands end right there

so take a 500hand sample, he VPIP'd 95times, raised 35 a fair number of those aren't going to make it to the flop, also likely sees a modest amount of free flops from the BB(probably around 60-70 hands in the BB in the stretch)

I think the estimate of 75-90 is fairly reasonable, and given how much variance there is on flop texture is a relatively meaningless sample

of those a ton are ending right there on the flop, I should dig in PT by cbets work very often at FR

so even if 45turns played, its still a tricky sample to analyze for his postflop tendencies because the variance is wild(if he's hitting 2x as many draws as expected its likely much higher than if he's missing 2x as many as expected)

now you get to the river, you might be at 10-15 hands that get there, sometimes the money is already in, so you don't get any info etc

its raw estimates, the turn # may have been a little low, and river is probably in the 8-25 range(often have runs of <15WSD, occasionally above 25WSD)

the main point is at 500hands VPIP and PFR still flucuate a fair bit, and as you shrink the sample even more(aka to times there is a flop, turn river etc) the original sample needs to be much larger to get a 500hand sample of those situations

100hand sample is wildly inaccurate for VPIP, its not going to suddengly be super accurate for flop play

what I think is much better is to look at specific hands and try and see how he plays certain hand strengths(flushdraws, weak TP, strong TP, monsters and try to develop an idea of his playing style that way)
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  #17  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:14 AM
CalledDownLight CalledDownLight is offline
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

I would call and check all flops. Go from there.
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  #18  
Old 11-30-2007, 10:57 AM
Landlord79 Landlord79 is offline
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

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