200 NL, trash from the BB. I'm a calling station.

[SABR42]

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I think you should generally shut down and fold to river bet.

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Put him on a range that plays this way and bets the river.

[veryblind]

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I think you should generally shut down and fold to river bet.

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Put him on a range that plays this way and bets the river.

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A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[SABR42]

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I think you should generally shut down and fold to river bet.

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Put him on a range that plays this way and bets the river.

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A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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LOL, I said range, not one hand.

Also that hand checks river most of the time.

[veryblind]

well, technically, a range can be one hand. but if it needs to be expanded, i would expect a range of (A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])

you made the right call on this play, so maybe you have a read i don't know about or you're a better player (probably the latter). just giving me opinion.

[RyanCMU]

I think the only resonable hands in his range that beat us on the river are 89, a scared 67, and stubborn Q.

However, he also has lots of room for various combo draws on the flop; T8ss, 56ss, 78ss, 53, 45, I mean there are lots of possible hands he could be calling the turn w/ and then bluffing the river when he misses.

Also, its important to note that he didn't isolate a EP limper when they had the button. So I think we can rule out a lot of stubborn Qs and Axss type hands, as they surely would usually raise the limper PF.

[SABR42]

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I think the only resonable hands in his range that beat us on the river are 89, a scared 67, and stubborn Q.

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Well, to be fair he could have backdoored something since on the flop he could have had anything. Something like AT could definitely be played this way, had he not raised pf.

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Also, its important to note that he didn't isolate a EP limper when they had the button. So I think we can rule out a lot of stubborn Qs and Axss type hands, as they surely would usually raise the limper PF.

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This is a great point.

[Renton]

i would probably just bet the flop


as played the flop is an obvious call and it isn't even close. Last to act, he's going to be betting out a lot of hands.

Im not sure I like the turn very much, i just don't get what the bet is meant to accomplish, other than denying a free card to a flush draw, which isn't reason enough to bet. It isn't as if he folds a queen.

I'm not sure what i'd do on the river. Probably c/f. He has Ax at least 50% of the time i think, and there are other hands he can have as well that beat us.

[AllTheCheese]

C/f flop.

Board: Qs 6c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.788% 40.12% 01.66% 30984 1284.50 { Qd3c }
Hand 1: 58.212% 56.55% 01.66% 43667 1284.50 { AsTs, As9s, As8s, A7s-A6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KQs, Q8s+, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 98s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 6s4s, 54s, 5s3s, 4s3s, 3s2s, KQo, Q9o+ }

And I put in a ton of semi-bluffs with flush and straight draws and with middle and bottom pair here. If he checks some of these hands behind (for example, middle-pair with A7s), you're in much worse shape.

[Renton]

its a pretty huge waste of time to try to pokerstove a flop betting range. Its simply too wide.

[Eternal]

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nice win, but I don't think this is a +ev play in general.
when overcard falls on turn, you bet and he calls, i think you should generally shut down and fold to river bet.

i think by betting 2/3 pot on turn, you hide your hand but you also hide strength of villain's hand from you. you don't know whether he's (incorrectly) drawing or calling with better hand.

if i don't fold flop, i would bet 1/2 pot on turn to see what villain does. i expect better hands to raise and draws to call. either way, i have better read on villain's hand.

thoughts?

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I really dislike this turn bet. I also dislike the half pot turn bet idea even more. These turn bets are meaningless imo and they only open up pontential raise bluff opportunities for villain (especially ones with these stats)

The donk turn bet tells me this: two pair set or weak q and possibly a draw. Heroes flop action tels me that it is less likely for him to have 2pr or set. So if villain raises that turn bet, he'll get all hands to fold except 2pr or set. Also u can take aq out of heroe's hand range of course.

A half pot bet is even worse as it'll make it cheaper for villains raise bluff.

I usually just chk fold this turn and prolly play same on the flop sometimes....but fold most of the time against loose stat villains like this one. I hate to play oop with this hand...

What are all ur thoughts on my analysis on that turn bet? I just think that at nl400 that turn bet is like asking villain to outplay me....not sure about nl200...although ill raise that turn in nl200 not sure how many other regulars would do it