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#22
11-01-2007, 12:44 AM
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Re: QJs got there on river
meh i'm sure he's c/c'ing TT and JJ here some of the time, as well as KK and AA, and any Q he double barreled.
you're hand looks a lot like what it is, and i'm sure JT is a more believable draw for you to have than T7 or 67 this is usually a bet, but closer to 2/3 of the pot 
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#23
11-01-2007, 12:56 AM
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Re: QJs got there on river
jlocdog: just given the taggish read, opening A9 and 9T type hands oop is unlikely. Then his line post flop leads me to think they are even more unlikely. I would be discounting thing greatly from his range. That is all i was saying.
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#26
11-01-2007, 01:12 AM
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Re: QJs got there on river
Jacbmw- When the dude double barrels here on this board and then checks the river, he is far more likely to have a hand with showdown value rather then air. To think KK/AA looks to c/c with these stacks sizes for PC or any other reason seems rather weak (and thus goes against his TAG moniker).
Also, opening from the HJ with 9x/8x does not go against the TAG read. My guess is that he has TT,JJ or JT himself the majority of the time. I would be more surprised if he turns up with KK/AA more often then A9 type crap.
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#27
11-01-2007, 01:17 AM
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Re: QJs got there on river
[ QUOTE ]
Jacbmw- When the dude double barrels here on this board and then checks the river, he is far more likely to have a hand with showdown value rather then air. To think KK/AA looks to c/c with these stacks sizes for PC or any other reason seems rather weak (and thus goes against his TAG moniker). Also, opening from the HJ with 9x/8x does not go against the TAG read. My guess is that he has TT,JJ or JT himself the majority of the time. I would be more surprised if he turns up with KK/AA more often then A9 type crap. [/ QUOTE ] i disagree with how often you think he shows up with AA/KK here. i think he shows up with JT < 1% of the time. our hand looks like a draw or a 9. JT got there, and most nines aren't calling a third barrel here. AA/KK will c/c a good amount of the time on this river to get value from bluffs or thin VBs, while not getting stacked by JT or a strange 2-pair like Q8ss
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#28
11-01-2007, 01:26 AM
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Re: QJs got there on river
I didn't mean to add JT in his likely holdings.
I am confused as to why many feel that KK/AA thinks we will be betting this river card for him very often given action. The only hand we conceivably have with any amount of frequency in terms of beating KK/AA is JT. Infact, in this spot I think we will call a bet much more often then we will bet ourselves if we have any amount of reasonable showdown value. This is because the lack of bluffing hands we would have on the river given our action AND the amount of bluffing hands he may have given his line....
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#30
11-01-2007, 01:50 AM
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Re: QJs got there on river
Our hand looks like a 9x type hand. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the majority of 1/2 players are checking behind fairly quickly with one of these type hands thanking their good fortune to being able to show down without putting more money in. I will also go out on a limb to say that the majority of 1/2 players will VB KK/AA here much more often then looking to induce given action leading up to river.
If the flush draw was a result of the flop being 2-tone rather then it being a result of the turn card then I would understand looking to trap with KK/AA more. As is though, the only other common draw besides for JT is 67. Seems thin for him to narrow our range in such a fashion that he can expect a bluff from us given the lack of floating hands we presumably have. And since he is most likely never folding KK/AA there is no point in checking in fear of the JT since he is paying it off anyways so he might as well just view this river strictly in terms of value. And betting holds more value then checking with KK+.
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