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| View Poll Results: MLB is how big a crapshoot (6 being most, 1 being least) | |||
| 6 |
   
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22 | 28.21% |
| 5 |
  
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24 | 30.77% |
| 4 |
  
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20 | 25.64% |
| 3 |
  
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7 | 8.97% |
| 2 |
  
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2 | 2.56% |
| 1 |
  
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3 | 3.85% |
| Voters: 78. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#12
10-10-2007, 01:44 PM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
Comments? Villain is unknown unfortunately... 3rd is I guess debateable but I was getting more than 4:1. Two dead 5s and a Q>K made me call it. I really thought about capping the river... Razz ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1 (converter) 3rd Street - (1.33 SB) Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___completes Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds Seat 7: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds [/ QUOTE ] Ante - 8 x 0.5 = $4.00 + $1.00 bring-in = $5.00 + his bet of $3.00 = $8.00 against your call of $2 so you are indeed getting 4 to 1 pot odds and approximately 4 to 1 to outflop him. What you need to understand is that this is to catch up. This is not a nut flush draw in holdem where you compare the pot odds directly to the outs you have - this play does not win those bets. This approach of defending the bring in and only continuing when you do outflop him is a completely fallacious idea and is a serious leak because you know he has a 3 card hand and he knows you have a 2 card hand. Even if you outflop him, lets say for the sake of arguement that you become even money to win from here on out... 1 out of 5 times = now even money to win 4 out of 5 times = you fold So using this horrible strategy, you will win a hand 1 out of 10 times, lose a hand 1 out of 10 times and lose 2/3s of a small bet 4 out of 5 times. Unless the player is a really bad chaser (and he would have to be real bad!), you actually need about 9 to 1 pot odds or better to make this call profitable - not 4 to 1 pot odds. You are never going to get 9 to 1 pot odds! Your just basically throwing away $2 - 4 out of 5 times. You make this play 10 times and it will lose you on average $16.... This will improve your game dramatically - Its surprising how many of the people here that say that the call on third is break even or is ok - they really don't know what they are talking about... no offense. Its a horrible strategy, its really absolutely dreadful! 
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#13
10-10-2007, 02:46 PM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
This approach of defending the bring in and only continuing when you do outflop him is a completely fallacious idea and is a serious leak because you know he has a 3 card hand and he knows you have a 2 card hand. Even if you outflop him, lets say for the sake of arguement that you become even money to win from here on out... 1 out of 5 times = now even money to win 4 out of 5 times = you fold So using this horrible strategy, you will win a hand 1 out of 10 times, lose a hand 1 out of 10 times and lose 2/3s of a small bet 4 out of 5 times. Unless the player is a really bad chaser (and he would have to be real bad!), you actually need about 9 to 1 pot odds or better to make this call profitable - not 4 to 1 pot odds. You are never going to get 9 to 1 pot odds! [/ QUOTE ] this is, like, entirely wrong. that said, it's still a fold on third.
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#14
10-10-2007, 03:07 PM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This approach of defending the bring in and only continuing when you do outflop him is a completely fallacious idea and is a serious leak because you know he has a 3 card hand and he knows you have a 2 card hand. Even if you outflop him, lets say for the sake of arguement that you become even money to win from here on out... 1 out of 5 times = now even money to win 4 out of 5 times = you fold So using this horrible strategy, you will win a hand 1 out of 10 times, lose a hand 1 out of 10 times and lose 2/3s of a small bet 4 out of 5 times. Unless the player is a really bad chaser (and he would have to be real bad!), you actually need about 9 to 1 pot odds or better to make this call profitable - not 4 to 1 pot odds. You are never going to get 9 to 1 pot odds! [/ QUOTE ] this is, like, entirely wrong. that said, it's still a fold on third. [/ QUOTE ] No, it isn't a nut flush draw, but while I'm only 4:1 to outflop him, I'm actually only a 3:1 dog to win the hand (I can win when we both improve on 4th), so if we were all in at that point the call would be immediately profitable. Implied odds later in the hand can mean that it's unprofitable but I maintained that the implied odds wouldn't be very bad in this case. I would sincerely hope on the 1/2 of the hands I win I win an extra small bet more than I lose on the hands I lose. I'm interested in the streets between 3rd and 7th, too. -ChipsAhoya
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#15
10-10-2007, 03:18 PM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
The call on 3rd is horrible. There is a huge difference between calling someone is steal position who you know has random hole cards and calling someone who raised into a bunch of low cards and you know has at worst a smooth 8.
I wouldn't even call this raise with 368. The discount you are getting does not justify the call.
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#16
10-10-2007, 04:39 PM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
The call on 3rd is horrible. There is a huge difference between calling someone is steal position who you know has random hole cards and calling someone who raised into a bunch of low cards and you know has at worst a smooth 8. I wouldn't even call this raise with 368. The discount you are getting does not justify the call. [/ QUOTE ]
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#17
10-10-2007, 07:40 PM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
This approach of defending the bring in and only continuing when you do outflop him is a completely fallacious idea and is a serious leak because you know he has a 3 card hand and he knows you have a 2 card hand. Even if you outflop him, lets say for the sake of arguement that you become even money to win from here on out... 1 out of 5 times = now even money to win 4 out of 5 times = you fold So using this horrible strategy, you will win a hand 1 out of 10 times, lose a hand 1 out of 10 times and lose 2/3s of a small bet 4 out of 5 times. Unless the player is a really bad chaser (and he would have to be real bad!), [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. I didn't have time to add up the money, but I'm winning defending the bring-in about 3.5 times out of ten. The difference is, losing a little when folding, winning a LOT when winning. Good folders turn into bad chasers when your crummy two-card hand starts to outpace him and he is sure his good hand will somehow catch up. But that's me. Not saying anyone else should ever play that way.
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#19
10-10-2007, 07:55 PM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. I didn't have time to add up the money, but I'm winning defending the bring-in about 3.5 times out of ten. [/ QUOTE ] Where are you getting this statistic from? Also, you would really need to filter out times that * your upcard is not that bad and his is not that good * he's in steal position - it's generally OK to defend there getting 4:1 with 2 wheel cards down, or even 2 cards to a 6. * Probably also need to filter out short-handed cases I'm about to get dinner but I might see if I can write a script to get this data for me out of PT.
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#20
10-10-2007, 10:12 PM
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Re: $3/$6 interesting Razz hand.
[ QUOTE ]
The call on 3rd is horrible. There is a huge difference between calling someone is steal position who you know has random hole cards and calling someone who raised into a bunch of low cards and you know has at worst a smooth 8. I wouldn't even call this raise with 368. The discount you are getting does not justify the call. [/ QUOTE ] How can you POSSIBLY not call w/ 368 there? You outflop him you win the pot... Also, the worst you can be is 42% on 3rd. Do you fold AK in the BB to a single raise vs. an unknown because he might have QQ? -ChipsAhoya
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