5/10 AKs turn line

[cbloom]

No Limit Hold'em Ring Game (6 max) , 6 players
Blinds : $5/$10

Stacks:
UTG : $746.04
MP : $970 (Hero)
CO : $1313
BTN : $4563.53
SB : $1746.02
BB : $517.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG limps, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $45</font>, CO folds, BTN calls, 2 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($115, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $86</font>, BTN calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($287, 2 players)
Hero ...

Villain is a 30/20 reg, one of the types that plays really LAG preflop but actually pretty passive/nitty postflop. I think that he thinks I'm a bit overaggro postflop and trappable but he's also scared of me.

I'm thinking bet, c-c, or crai ?

[LuckyDice]

I think crai &gt;&gt; bet &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; c/c

[Hoopster81]

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I'm thinking bet

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[Jamougha]

If you think about the range he's betting the turn with, crai is probably not a good plan.

Leading is not too bad providing you shove any river, since he will peel one with a lot of 2 pair hands and so on.

Checking isn't bad as he will check it back pretty often.

[tcorbin16]

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Checking isn't bad as he will check it back pretty often.

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[SirFelixCat]

Ok, lemme preface by saying that I'm a uNL player...but hear me out, please.

The more I look at this, the more the CRAI seems to be the best line. Button's effective stack is only $970 preflop. Therefore, if we bet and villain raises, he has priced himself into calling an all-in, therefore we have little to no FE. Where as if we ck, villain, even with a PSB, gives us enough FE that we can crai and make up the equity, since we only need 15-20% FE to make this neutral EV.(we have 35% equity if all our club, A, and K outs are clean and 30% if only A and clubs are clean, assuming he doesn't have the straight)

Not to mention that villain might check behind, which is not a horrible outcome either. But by betting, we put ourselves in a precarious spot if villain raises.

Checking the turn very well could represent a CB and giving up, so that villain will fire with a wider range than what he'd call a bet with.

Thoughts?

[ajloeffl]

Is opponent really betting this turn without a ten? If he is nitty/passive, then I doubt it. That comment usually indicates he isn't as likely to steal and if he has a set, he is going to check to try to fill up free. Also, if you bet he may call trying to fill up as well assuming he will get paid off if he hits. He will probably raise a bet if he has a ten though which you probably won't be able to profitably call. Also, you may not be able to profitably check/call. It is a tough spot you are in with a draw out of position.

[cbloom]

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If you think about the range he's betting the turn with, crai is probably not a good plan.


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Yeah, I think he might bet with like AJ or something to "protect it" which he would fold, but way too much of his betting range is strong and will call.

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Leading is not too bad providing you shove any river, since he will peel one with a lot of 2 pair hands and so on.


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Yeah was thinking about that, if I bet turn maybe I should go on and shove any river. I doubt he folds a set, but he might just fold two pair and definitely folds one pair. I think two pair is the most likely holding so a better feel for whether or not he folds it could make this the best line.

[Praetor]

I think $250, shove any river is a good line here

If he shoves you have to fold