#1
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Poker Tournament Formula stdev calculations
Just read through the book, and maybe I'm being a nit or just missing something, but aren't the standard deviations for tournaments in the Appendix being calculated incorrectly? The formula for variance is (P/B - 1)^^2, which would be correct if the mean (expectation) is zero, which is true for a break-even player, but not for an advantage player. Seems to me that for a 200% advantage player you'd want to use (P/B - 3)^^2, which yields a slightly different total variance from what is given in the book (I calculated ~49.5 instead of 53.255).
(sorry if this has already been brought up, I skimmed that huge thread and couldn't find anything on it) |
#2
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Re: Poker Tournament Formula stdev calculations
You just answered your own question. It doesn't matter much. What edge is he supposed to use anyway? Everyone's edge is different.
I also wouldn't be surprised if assuming 0% edge maximizes the possible variance, which is a correct thing to do when variance depends on expected value, and expected value is unknowable. |
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